Current Situation

While commerce and industry are experiencing their usual Summer slowdown, no little interest is expressed regarding the outlook for Fall. Two months ago opinion was practically unanimous that considerable activity would be witnessed in the Autumn. Since that time, however, the drastic liquidation in the stock market has created doubt.

On its face, the declining stock market, usually a reliable trade barometer, would argue a decrease in general business activity in the coming months. On the other hand, the security market was undoubtedly inflated, and its recent fall may therefore be due to purely inherent conditions. Money remains easy, and with high wages the retail trade should feel little anxiety for the approaching season.

An unknown quantity is provided by the impending financial collapse of Germany, where over two trillion new marks were added to circulation last week. How far this inevitable collapse will affect other nations is problematical, but that its effect will be felt everywhere there is little doubt.

The caution shown by our merchants against overstocking is justified by the present outlook. The situation calls for conservative methods; it does not, however, justify exaggerated alarms or fears.