War in the Pacific

The Institute of Politics at Williamstown, Mass. (now in session) discusses chiefly political affairs, but politics in its larger sense includes war. In this connection Professor George H. Blakeslee of Clark University, leader of one of the "round tables," discussed the situation brought about by the Washington Arms Conference in relation to a possible war with Japan, and predicted a long war--and perhaps an unsuccessful one.

There are many naval officers at the institute, among them Rear Admiral Joseph Strauss, K.C.M.G., Commander of the Asiatic Squadron. Admiral Strauss was commander of the force which laid a barrage of over 56,000 mines across the North Sea in the Spring of 1918. Later he had the task of removing them. He agreed in substance with Professor Blakeslee and added a few remarks of his own.

Professor Blakeslee pointed out that because the Washington Conference prohibited us from developing naval bases on our Pacific Islands, excepting Hawaii, the probable events in case of a Japanese War would be:

1) The capture of Guam by the enemy.

2) The occupation of the Philippines by the Japanese. This would be a major operation but would be completed before our fleet had left Hawaii. As Captain Mizuno Hironori, formerly of the Japanese Navy Department, pointed out a few weeks ago in the Chuo Koren* (Tokyo), the maintenance of a war strength of 42 divisions by the Japanese army looks forward to the possibility of capturing the Philippines in the event of war.

3) The capture of former German islands now in Japanese hands by our fleet (an operation consuming perhaps two years), before any decision could be reached.

4) An outcome perhaps determined by economic exhaustion or by the participation of other nations.

Admiral Strauss declared that with no far Eastern base, should our fleet engage in battle in the China seas " any U. S. ship damaged in battle probably would be a total loss." He added in regard to the Washington conference: "It is always easy to promote good feeling by giving way."

* For an interesting Japanese view of the possibilities of a Japanese-American War, see the reprint of this article in the August issue of The Living Age (weekly of world affairs, published at the Atlantic Monthly Press in Boston).