Cotton

The forecast of the cotton crop made by the Department of Agriculture on Sept. 1 showed a marked reduction from the estimate made Aug. 1. During the intervening weeks there had been excessive rainfall in eastern and southern parts of the cotton belt, equally excessive droughts in Texas and Oklahoma, renewed activity by the boll weevil and leaf worm. As a result the"percentage condition" of the coming crop as of Aug. 25 was only 54.1%--the lowest figure ever reported by the Department of Agriculture. At this rate, the average acre under cotton will yield only 134.8 pounds.

The fall in the percentage condition from 71% on May 25 to 69.0% on June 25, to 67.2% on July 25 and finally to 54.1% on Aug. 25 has naturally reduced in proportion the estimate of the size of the coming crop. This estimate now stands at 10,788,000 bales, compared with an estimate of 11,516,000 bales made a month earlier, and with the single exception of 1921 is the lowest for August in the past nine years. The pessimistic tone of the Government forecast was a complete surprise to the trade, and resulted in a sharp advance of $5 a bale for spot cotton in New Orleans. The final crop harvested may, however, vary considerably from this latest forecast, according to the turn taken by various conditioning factors during the remainder of the crop season. The chief reason given for inroads made by the weevil is, that heavy rains in much of the belt have washed from the cotton plants the calcium arsenate placed there to protect them against the pest.