The Balance of Power

On Oct. 1, French and German delegates will meet in Paris to negotiate a treaty of commerce between their respective countries. That fact is of tremendous importance to Britain for two reasons:

Political. Before the War, Britain's influence on the Continent of Europe rested snugly upon the doctrine of the balance of power. In those days, the Continental Great Powers were Germany, Austria - Hungary, Russia, France. "Balance of power" meant to Britain the equal division of these Powers so that she could, at a given time, exert a decisive influence.

After the War, the application of balance of power was more simple, but less efficacious. France and Italy were the sole Great Powers on the Continent; but national animosities kept them apart and thus played into the hands of Britain. Alone of the ex-enemy States, Germany remained a potential Great Power. In the manifold disputes which from time to time arose between France and Germany, Britain was able, although not always successfully under the new economic conditions, to exert considerable pressure upon one side or the other.

With unmistakable evidence, France and Germany began to display a desire for an economic rapprochement which is to take definite form at Paris in October. It is freely predicted by political sages that Britain's balance of power plans are to be forever upset.

Economic. In London last week, political circles were thrilled by a speech from Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Snowden, "Enemy of Capitalism" as some still like to call him. His words were prophetic, revealing, in the present, a rift within the Labor Party and, in the future, the shoals of dangerous commercial enmity. His utterance, issued in that sharp, rasping voice that verges upon the disagreeable, implicated the Free Trade platform upon which Labor stood at the last election (TIME, Nov. 26 et seq.), and gave shape to a political crisis that may, some predicted, involve the country in a general election next December.

It has been said that Premier Ramsay MacDonald is a politician and an opportunist before a Socialist. Philip Snowden is a Socialist before all else, yielding nothing, "consumed with one passionate purpose," "a Robespierre of concentrated and remorseless purpose."

When Mr. Snowden became Chancellor of the Exchequer, enemies gazed upon his crippled form--the result of a bicycle accident when young--and declared him an idealist, a pacifist, a radical, a man without training for the high office of Chancellor. To them he was a despicable figure. Then came his budget (TiME, May 12). People were forced to change their views. When that "pallid, hatchet-faced man, small, leaning heavily upon his crutches, dragging one foot helplessly along the ground," took his place upon the Treasury Bench in the House of Commons, made his budget speech, they recognized him as a master of finance and economics, an outstanding Chancellor among the outstanding Chancellors of Britain. Even Conservatives cheered him to the echo.

The words of such a man are not to be taken lightly. At London, last week, apropos of the Experts' Plan and the jeopardized future of British trade, he said in effect: "By the Experts' Plan it was hoped to expand British trade and find work for our million unemployed. But a Franco-German trade agreement may well offset this expected result." The Chancellor went on to make a veiled attack upon the Premier which was construed as meaning that Mr. MacDonald must rely more upon his Ministers and less upon himself; for it had become known that the Cabinet was not consulted upon the Anglo-Russian settlement (TIME, Aug. 18).

Conservatives interpreted Philip's speech as a plain statement in support of protection, which means preferential tariffs for Commonwealth products. The prophets heralded a new general election in which the following problems would be paramount:

1) Future British trade, implicating a revival of the age-old Protection versus Free Trade controversy;

2) The Irish boundary dispute (TiME, Aug. 11);

3) The Anglo-Russian Treaty (TIME, Aug. 18).

Significance. The economic situation on the Continent gave poignancy to Snowden's speech. What did he mean by saying that a trade agreement between France and Germany "may well offset this expected result ?" This: By the Treaty of Versailles Germany's Ruhr coal was separated from her Alsace-Lorraine iron ore. The coal remained in Germany; the ores went to France. France has not enough coal; Germany has not enough iron ores. The logical thing for France to do is to follow the advice of that ex-Premier of France and economic genius, M. Joseph Caillaux, and seek an economic association with Germany. This can have but one result: The close cooperation of the two industries will form the largest steel combination in the world. Germany and France will be enabled to control many world markets to the complete exclusion of the British; and their combined power will, until Russia becomes once more a Great Power, be ever a standing challenge to British influence on the Continent and an unremitting foe to British commerce. It must be remembered that Joseph Caillaux's scheme of things was to end British interference in Continental affairs-- a policy which Premier Herriot of France is following while paradoxically clinging to the Entente Cordiale.

British miners besought Premier MacDonald to prevent Germany from paying any more reparations in coal-- France, to a large extent, and Germany, to a lesser degree, have in recent years been the largest coal customers of Britain--and generally warned him of the effect that the London Agreement (TIME, Aug. 25, INTERNATIONAL) will have on the industry. Political leaders are beginning to growl; for British trade and British influence were being threatened on the Continent by a likely combination that is to give a new meaning to the doctrine of the balance of power.