Monday, Jan. 05, 1925

Par Sterling?

On Mar. 20, 1919, J. P. Morgan & Co. announced on behalf of the British Government that cessation of the War-time policy of "supporting the pound" had been ordered. Sterling, long held at about $4.75, at once started a long toboggan which ended at $3.18 on Feb. 4, 1920. In the next two years the pound twice reached $4.00 and over only to fall back again. In 1922, a genuine advance began that ended at $4.72 in February, 1923. The invasion of the Ruhr, British flight of capital and fear of the Labor Party brought sterling down to $4.20 again last January. Since that time, adoption of the Experts' Plan and the ousting of the Labor ministry has led to a remarkable advance to $4.73 1/2-- a new high level.

This advance in the pound has precipitated a sharp debate in the British press concerning the possibility of returning to a gold basis in the near future--or specifically, in 1925. There is no doubt that sterling will ultimately be restored to its parity, of $4.8665 and not much doubt but what the fluctuations of the exchange market may see this price reached in 1925. The real question is whether such a price could be maintained, if necessary, by artificial means.

The return of the gold standard in Great Britain would undoubtedly prove a tremendous forward step in the restoration of international trade and finances. On the other hand, British opinion still favors a gradual, sound resumption of sterling parity to artificial experiments at "stabilization," however attractive on paper.