Monday, Jun. 22, 1925

Empty Heads

The Department of Agriculture came out of a brown study and announced its June estimates for 1925 grain crops. The most interest was displayed in the wheat estimate, for the emissaries of agriculture traveling through the wheat belt had found the winter wheat, which constitutes about two thirds of the wheat produced in this country, short of stalk, thin in stand/-, short of head--, with heads not well filled or empty.

The estimated crop was:

Winter wheat 407,000,000 bushels

Spring wheat 254,000,000 "

Total wheat crop. .661,000,000 bushels

What does this mean? It means the smallest wheat crop in eight years. It means a wheat crop so small that it should just about equal our wheat consumption--perhaps fall slightly below it, leaving no surplus for export. It means that, even if wheat prices are low abroad, they will be high here. It means that farmers will get good prices for their wheat--even if they have not a great deal to sell.

How did it come about ? It came about principally because of poor weather conditions. The number of acres planted in wheat is less than half of one per cent below last year's acreage, but the expected crop is more than 24% less. The estimated yield (number of bushels per acre) is very low. For winter wheat, it is only 12.4 bushels--less than it has been in 20 years. A cool, dry May was largely responsible.

How will it affect politics ? It will probably lessen the political pressure to institute a grain-exporting corporation with governmental capital to dispose of our wheat surplus abroad. This year there will be no wheat surplus.

All this follows: "If the June estimate is correct."

The forecast for the following crops also indicated smaller production this year than last (but not so striking as in wheat) : Oats, rye, hay, peaches, pears.

One crop showed an increase: Barley.

*"Winter wheat" is planted in the late fall and allowed to lie in the ground through winter. Spring wheat is first planted in the spring.

/-The "stand" refers to the density of stalks in a field, as "a thin stand," "a heavy stand."

**The "head" is, of course, the enlargement at the top of the stalk common to all the "grasses," in which the kernels develop.