Merry Mr. McCoy

"The Treasury estimates that . ." ."

Behind this impersonal phrase, recurrent in all news of U. S. finances, stands a very round, very jolly, very careful man named Joseph McCoy. In his so's, Mr. McCoy is the Government's actuary, the Treasury's chief gazer info 'the fiscal future. How much will the U. S. collect next year in income taxes? Mr. McCoy scratches with a pencil, adds, subtracts, consults a sheaf of papers, brings forth an answer. How many cigarets will be smoked? How many men will die to leave large estates? How many shares of stock will change hands? On all these matters, from which the U. S. derives revenue, Mr. McCoy can produce answers. How he does it is his secret.

Mr. McCoy is only one of three Treasury estimators. His figures go to Secretary Mellon and Undersecretary Mills who place them beside the work of his two peers. The McCoy calculations, however, are Secretary Mellon's chief guide in striking a reasonable balance and announcing: "The Treasury estimates that ..."

Of particular interest are the estimates on Surplus and Deficit--figures much mouthed in Congress and on the political stump. Whether the Treasury estimates are accurate or not is highly debatable. Secretary Mellon can quickly prove that Mr. McCoy's errors as a fiscal forecaster are negligible. At the Capitol, the Treasury's actuary can be and often is made out a worthless prophet. But there is no disputing this fact about Mr. McCoy: if and when his estimates err, it is on the cautious side--over for Deficit, under for Surplus. Perhaps his merry mien is due in some measure to his delight in always finding that the U. S. Government is in better financial condition than he had predicted.

Last July when the 1930 fiscal year began, President Coolidge, on the advice of Budget Director Lord and Treasury Estimator McCoy, warned of a deficit next June of 94 million dollars. Though it was only on paper, it was used in the campaign as an argument by Republicans against a change in administration, by Democrats as a sign of bad stewardship. By October, President Coolidge foresaw an even break between receipts and expenditures. By December, when President Coolidge sent his budget to Congress, he had discovered a timorous little surplus of 37 millions peeping up at him. By March it had risen to 50 millions. Last week Mr. McCoy, anonymously, of course, revised his figures and forecast a surplus of 100 millions on June 30.

In March the U. S. paid its income taxes.

On April 1, the fiscal year was three-quarters over. In that nine-month period the Treasury had collected $2,137,178,647 which was some 60 millions more than for the same period last year. For the first time, the March tax payments showed personal receipts ahead of those from corporations.

What Mr. McCoy had failed to forecast was the 1928 "bull" market, with a tax-paying public enriched by speculation.