Growling & Hissing

Like a luscious, dangling fruit is Manchuria, granary of the Orient, the only part of China not impoverished by war and famine, a prosperous land that absorbs annually $36,000,000 worth of U. S. goods. Last week the growling and hissing of Russian Bear and Chinese Dragon over the Manchurian prize grew increasingly furious until the two Great Powers clawed warily at each other, drew a few spurts of soldier blood. Such was the smoke screen of lies set up by both antagonists that alert observers could set down only a few vital, verifiable developments:

Dragon Pussyfoots. Shrewdest move of the week was made by President Chiang Kai-shek of China and Foreign Minister C. T. Wang when they sought to use the general treaty for the renunciation of war (Kellogg Pact) (see p. 9) as a shield to cover up the high-handed fashion in which, last fortnight, they booted out of China the entire Russian personnel of the Chinese Eastern Railway (see map). The expulsion was clearly not "an act of war" in the technical military sense (though it was a deadly blow at the Far Eastern commerce of Russia). Consequently, argued the Chinese Foreign Office, last week, China did not violate the Kellogg Pact in ousting the Russians, but if Moscow should take military steps to avenge their expulsion then the Soviet Government would be guilty of a violation, would deserve to be disciplined by other Powers who have signed the Pact.

Nowhere was this ingenious argument received with such indignation as at Tokyo. Japan has, as Russia had, a great number of her Nationals employed on a Manchurian line--the Southern Manchurian Railway. If the Kellogg Pact can be successfully invoked when China is kicking out Russians, it would be quite as useful should China one day decide to boot out Japanese.

Easily secured by Mr. Stimson was the cooperation of both Britain and France, the latter country consenting to transmit his "reminder" to Russia (see p. 9). Soon after the "reminder" was transmitted, Statesman Stimson received formal assurance from China and Russia (the latter through French Ambassador Paul Claudel) that each would abide by the Kellogg Treaty, that neither intended to take hostile action in their dispute.

First Blow? But, since the Kellogg Pact loses its legalistic potency to prevent war as soon as shots have actually been fired by one of the adversaries, major interest centred last week on numerous border skirmishes, incessantly rumored to be taking place along the Chino-Russian frontier. The moment such a skirmish assumed sufficiently bloody proportions to be called an "overt act," it might serve as the tinder spark of war. Soon across the barrier of censorship, lies vast and uncharted distances, came a loud Chinese accusation. The Governor-Dictator of Manchuria, Marshal Chang Hsueh-Liang, officially charged that Red troops had attacked Chinese frontier guards not far from Pogro-nichnaya (see map).

From Moscow came no equally authoritative counter charge. Soviet troops were admittedly mobilizing to menace Manchuria like a pair of tongs closing in from Manchuli and Vladivostok. Russian newspapers in the U. S. received word that General Uberovitch had been appointed Soviet Commander-in-Chief. During the World War he served as a regimental commander in the Imperial Russian Army, was later C.-in-C. of the Soviet forces which repulsed the white Russian Armies from Siberia in 1919. Though a taciturn martinet, Comrade Commander Uberovitch is popular in the Red Army, is reckoned its most brilliant strategist.

Which Would Win? The occidental who knows most about which side might win a Chino-Russian war is hard-boiled "Major General" Frank Sutton. He used to be chief military advisor to rapacious, barbaric old Manchurian War Lord Chang Tso-lin, father of the present Governor-Dictator of Manchuria, Chang Hsueh-Liang. Since Old Chang waged most of his wars from Mukden--and finally died there when his armored train was dynamited--the doughty General Sutton knows every inch of Manchuria's prospective battlefields and also the calibre and equipment of Chinese and Russian troops. Sought out in London, last week, where he is living in retirement, General Sutton authoritatively said: "The Manchurian Army, with which I was actively associated for five years, during which it virtually conquered two-thirds of all China, is easily the best equipped and most efficient in China. But it would be useless against Russia.

"Assuming that Russia seriously pursues war she will undoubtedly win--unless Japan steps in. Japan could stem any Russian advance with comparative ease, in spite of the fact that the Russian army is today extremely well organized and much more efficient than it was in Tsarist days. It is well equipped, well armed and well clad, loyal and enthusiastic. . . . The Russia Air Force is large, well equipped and efficient."

Asked about Marshal Chang Hsueh-liang--son of his old employer, Marshal Chang Tso-lin--General Sutton meaningly said: "His qualities as a strategist remain to be seen. If they are anything like his father's Russia will not find victory so easy to attain."