Perplexing Primary

In New York City last week somewhat less than 850,000 registered voters--less than half the number who are expected to elect a mayor in November--went to the polls and for the second time in four-years, administered a drubbing to Tammany. In doing so they accomplished what was perhaps the neatest political trick of the season, for the results of the primary gave a broad hint that Mayor LaGuardia, conqueror of Tammany, will have the political fight of his life on Election Day.

3 in 2. The curious results in the primary were made possible by a curious device to which Tammany resorted. With the Democratic organizations in four of the city's five boroughs (Brooklyn, The Bronx, Queens and Richmond) in revolt, Tammany, controlling only Manhattan, foresaw the difficulty of nominating its own candidate for mayor, bumbling Senator Royal S. Copeland, on the Democratic ticket. Therefore, besides entering Dr. Copeland in the Democratic race against the smiling Irish face of Judge Jeremiah Titus Mahoney. Tammany entered Dr. Copeland in the Republican race against the city's explosive little reform mayor, Fiorello LaGuardia (TIME, Aug 2).

Thus with three men in two primaries, and a contest in each, the results were sure to give a test of relative strength. With Jerry Mahoney enjoying the support of Postmaster James A. Farley, and Fiorello LaGuardia, a friend and supporter of Franklin Roosevelt, Senator Copeland and Tammany counted on having a monopoly on anti-New Deal votes which might turn up a majority in at least the Republican primary. These were not enough to prevent Dr. Copeland from being badly beaten in both battles.

Reform v. Machine. Because New Dealer LaGuardia succeeded in winning in a Republican primary, because most of New York City's newspapers, including Scripps-Howard's World-Telegram and Joseph Medill Patterson's News are his firm supporters, the primary results were hailed as a great LaGuardia victory. Such they were, for stubby little firebrand LaGuardia had bothered to make only one campaign speech.

But four years ago Mayor LaGuardia won election in a three-cornered race against a Tammany and a "Recovery" (New Deal Democratic) opponent. In so doing he polled about 800,000 votes to 1,200,000 by his rivals combined. Had Dr. Copeland won the Republican primary, LaGuardia running under some other label would again have had the advantage of a three-cornered race. Instead Tammany, beaten in the primaries, announced that it would support Democrat Jerry Mahoney, once more consolidating the Democratic vote. Judge Mahoney being a New Dealer, and having won Jewish sympathy two years ago by standing out vigorously against U. S. participation in the Olympic Games at Berlin, Mayor LaGuardia will have only one major issue to fight on this fall: reform v. machine.

In New York City such a battle usually favors the machine. In last week's primaries approximately five Democratic votes were cast for every Republican vote. Worse still for Mayor LaGuardia's comfort, although Jerry Mahoney polled nearly three votes to two for Copeland in the Democratic primary, LaGuardia himself polled two votes to Copeland's one in the Republican race.

Fiorello's Gamble. In spite of these evil omens friends of LaGuardia were last week actually confident of his reelection. One reason for their confidence was that a last minute move to write in LaGuardia's name on the Democratic ballot produced no less than 50,000 votes--a bagatelle compared to Mahoney's 400,000 or Copeland's 200,000. but a striking vote of confidence under the circumstances.

What LaGuardia partisans count on chiefly, however, is the independent vote of which little is registered at the primaries. In November upwards of 2,000,000 votes are expected to be cast compared to less than 850,000 last week. Of some 1,150,000 voters who did not take part in the primaries, LaGuardia may easily win a majority. With a large following in union labor he may poll 200,000 or 300,000 Labor votes alone. But having polled only about 125,000 votes in both the primaries he will need a landslide among non-primary voters to pull him through to victory in November. Since fighting against long odds has always been Fiorello LaGuardia's favorite political sport, last week he looked forward to his prospects with satisfaction.

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