Polls

When the Democratic Convention opened in Chicago, the Gallup Poll stood: President Roosevelt, 53%; Wendell Willkie, 47%. Another Gallup Poll taken in New York State before Convention's end gave New York to Willkie, 51%-to-49%. A week later Pennsylvania (where Dr. Gallup had previously found a growing Democratic sentiment) shifted: Willkie, 52%; Roosevelt, 48%.

Last week a FORTUNE Poll, taken between the Republican and Democratic Conventions, reported some of the most sensational reversals in public opinion to date, indicated that President Roosevelt would carry little outside the Solid South (see col. 3) if the election were held immediately after the Conventions. Salient FORTUNE findings:

P: President Roosevelt was by all odds the strongest Democratic candidate, despite the Third Term. After the Republican nomination, voters stood 47.1% for Willkie, only 25.9% for a Democrat other than Roosevelt.

P: President Roosevelt gained strength only where he did not need it--the deep South--lost most (19.3%) on the Pacific Coast:

For Roosevelt For Willkie South Atlantic 66.5% 16.4% East South Central 64.8 11.1 West South Central 62.8 15.9 Mountain States 39.3 39.3 East North Central 38.8 45.1 New England 40.6 47.2 Pacific Coast 37.0 51.1 Middle Atlantic 35.9 52.6 West North Central 33.1 57.6

P: With the spread between the two candidates less than 4%, the undecided still held the balance of power.

P: Willkie was favored over Roosevelt everywhere except in rural communities, showed his greatest weakness in the farm and labor vote.

Because the FORTUNE Poll forecast the 1936 popular vote within 2%, because New Dealers have long taken President Roosevelt's political invincibility for granted, poll findings made a deeper impression in Washington than elsewhere in the U. S. New Dealers solaced themselves with the belief that Wendell Willkie had reached the crest of his wave, would now decline. The FORTUNE Survey itself pointed out--"A public whose preferences are as fluid as the comparison of these returns indicates may react against the Republican candidate after the first delighted surprise at his nomination has worn off. And Willkie's opportunities to make mistakes in the campaign all lie ahead, while Roosevelt has had seven years in which, perhaps, to have made all the political mistakes he is likely to make."

Mistake? There was no question as to where New Dealers expected Wendell Willkie to make one mistake. They expected Wendell Willkie, in trying to garner isolationist votes, to fall into the trap of advocating some kind of appeasement of the dictatorships. FORTUNE findings indicated that whoever was tagged as appeaser began with a heavy handicap.

If Germany and Italy should win the war, which one of these two things comes closer to what you think the U. S. should do?

Arm to the teeth at any expense to be prepared for any trouble--88.3%.

Stop spending so much for armaments and try to get along peacefully with them--7-8%.

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