Balance in the Balance

The sinister warships and screaming planes and convoys of troop ships and sweating armies were governing the world. Almost everywhere, politics had ceased to have a life of its own, had become the creature of fighting force. But in Vichy politics still governed the disposition of the world's last great inactive fleet; in the Iberian Peninsula, politics still kept great bases immobilized.

Coveted Fleet. The challenge of the Axis to Allied sea power focused the world's attention on the French Fleet, because, so nearly equal are Allied & Axis Navies, the weight of that fleet--the battleships Richelieu, Dunkerque, Strasbourg, Provence, the 14 French cruisers, 42 destroyers, 59 submarines--will tip the balance of world sea power. Last week the German press declared that France's greatest ships were in battle trim, "ready for any eventuality."

Vichy's cloak of neutrality was wearing too thin to hide much. In London, Minister of Economic Warfare Hugh Dalton gave figures showing that Vichy's collaboration with Germany had been military, as well as economic and political. He said that in two months Vichy had sent the German forces in Libya cars, lorries, 5,500 tons of motor fuel.

The U.S. had been informed of this traffic. Already there were signs that the U.S. State Department, which has long given Vichy the benefit of enormous doubts, was undergoing a change of heart. Under Secretary Sumner Welles summoned Vichy's Ambassador Gaston Henri-Haye for a stern talk, later denied that the Free French seizure of St. Pierre and Miquelon (TIME, Jan. 5) would cause the U.S. to invoke the Declaration of Havana. He implied that, although the Free French could be told to quit the islands while relations with Vichy remained tense, the U.S. had no idea of telling them any such thing.

If Vichy could no longer pretend to be neutral, few thought that the men of Vichy, who have wagered their personal futures on Axis success, would balk at ordering the French Navy to sail under Axis colors. But there was one practical obstacle: the temper of many French seamen, who have threatened sabotage if ordered to fight for the Axis.

Coveted Bases. Among these ominous developments was held what was likely to prove one of history's most futile conversations. It took place in the warm winter mildness of Seville, between Spain's Generalissimo Francisco Franco and Portugal's Premier Antonio de Oliveira Salazar. Doubtless they tried to solidify the one complete agreement between neutral Portugal and nonbelligerent, pro-Axis Spain. Both want to suffer as little damage as possible from the shocks and tremors of World War II. But Spain surrounds--and covets--the British fortress of Gibraltar, and Portugal's coastline and islands are fast becoming vital in the Battle of the Atlantic. It was, therefore, hard to believe that Spain and Portugal could long enjoy their neutral never-never land.

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