Forecasts

Prime index of future business trends is given four times a year by the National Association of Shippers Advisory Boards, through which more than 85% of all U.S. shippers tell the railroads how many carloads they expect to ship in the coming quarter. In 19 years the average of their forecasts has been correct within 2%.

Last week the shippers gave their estimate for the next 90 days, predicted a rise of 4.6% in carloadings over the summer of 1941, of 7.2% over this year's spring. Actually this forecasts a tonnage increase of well over 4.6%, however, since recent limitations on half-filled cars have cut less-than-carload figures more than one-third, from 143,000 a week to 92,000. Interesting points:

> Biggest increase over 1941 will be 19% in the Ohio Valley. No increase is expected in the Great Lakes Region.

> New England will load 18.4% fewer cars. This reflects the cut in l.c.l. loadings, for most New England shipments are small in size.

> The grain-storage problem (TIME, June 22) will reduce grain loadings 17.8%; and manufacturers of agricultural implements, now heavily booked with war orders, will send 22.7% fewer carloads to the farms.

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