Nonsense Into Sense

If the average U.S. citizen said the hell with it and went for a long, tire-consuming joyride last week, it was small wonder. As the week wore on, he was subjected to more confusion than ever about the rubber shortage. Some moderately good news of ersatz tire prospects was perverted into a miracle like the loaves and fishes.

This time, the chief responsibility for confusion was clear: the fault lay with the U.S. press, about whose handling of the week's rubber news the kindest comment would be that the news itself came too fast for predeadline digestion. Even the sober New York Times headlined a sober report to Congress by Jesse Jones: AMPLE NEW RUBBER IN '43 SAYS JONES.

What was the real rubber score, asked the rubber-shy nation? Had the worst U.S. shortage of all suddenly turned into another New Deal mirage? The answer was No.

There was some good news about rubber last week, but--as the careful newspaper reader could see--it went no further than a new hope of meeting really essential needs during the year and a half before the 800,000-ton synthetic program can get going full blast. Last month the President warned car owners that before long the police might come around to jack up their cars, remove their tires, and put them on some war worker's jalopy. Last week's news--if it pans out--said that, one way and another, essential civilian needs (trucks, busses, ambulances, cars for war workers) could be kept rolling without resorting to wholesale confiscations.

The reason for even that much good news was a lesson in how war can change an industry's mental processes. Before Pearl Harbor no profit-minded synthetic producer in his right mind was working on anything but how to make a product enough better than natural rubber to justify its higher cost. After Pearl Harbor the industry suddenly saw that anything better than a wooden wheel was worth going after. Two major events last week illuminated that change in direction:

>> The tire industry told WPB that with only 4,500 tons of crude (less than 1% of the remaining U.S. stockpile) and 234,000 tons of reclaim (about one-third of U.S. two-year capacity) it can recap enough old tires, make enough new ones of reclaimed rubber to meet the irreducible minimum-replacement demand to keep all present cars on the road. But the press underplayed the industry's quid pro quo for the miracle: To achieve it, said the tiremen, every car, truck and bus in the U.S. will have to cut its usual mileage an average of 25% (which means much more than a 25% cut for a lot of nonessential mileage). Moreover, nobody at all can drive more than 40 m.p.h.

>> Standard Oil (N.J.) President William Parish went down to Washington to give a House subcommittee some big news from the synthetic front: 1) Butyl rubber has been so improved by better compounding methods that butyl tires have stood up under 16,000 miles of grueling road tests. So the 60,000 tons of butyl capacity now under way spells serviceable light tires instead of just specialty rubber.

2) The oil companies now hope to supply enough butyl and butadiene to make 200,000 more tons of synthetic rubber in 1943 than had previously been in sight. Some of this would be high-grade Buna-S, achieved by getting into butadiene production immediately on existing excess refining equipment. Some of it would be extra low-grade "bathtub butyl," more politely known as flexon, a new synthetic developed when the rubber companies gave Standard the specifications for the worst rubber that it is possible to use in a tire. It is good for 8,000 miles or so at 40 m.p.h.

There was bad news. For one thing, the rubber shortage looked much worse last week than ever before; worse by far than when the Government made its latest supply estimates, showing a 1943 deficit of 5,000 tons. It looked so bad, in fact, that even the 4,500 tons of crude (not to mention the 234,000 tons of reclaim) the tire companies wanted for civilian tires looked almost too big--particularly since Buna-S has not yet showed up as well as natural rubber for heavy-duty tires.

Meanwhile politics, the wheat bloc, and the screams for new processes (including one from Wendell Willkie's brother Herman) still threatened and clouded the synthetic rubber program. The U.S. citizen--who should be concentrating on stretching out his present tires as far as they can go--was still distracted by daily news of new rubber panaceas. Moreover, with the synthetic program finally set and going ahead (TIME, July 20), there was a serious threat that the Senate would move to set up a new, separate rubber authority, which would no doubt upset the program all over again.

The Rubber Front still held last week, despite these shenanigans. Said Jesse Jones, making good sense again: "We would never get any considerable synthetic rubber if we jumped from one process to another every time an oil company or alcohol company or an inventor wanted the Government to adopt their process." Said Don Nelson: "Our decision has been made. If it's wrong, I'll take the blame." Said one member of the tough, anonymous new Washington rubber team: "If they'll just go on scrapping long enough and leave us alone, we can get the plants far enough along so they won't dare wreck the program again."

But last week there was a new controlling fact in the rubber program. The steel shortage had become so bad that the real miracle will be to keep the present synthetic program going at all. If the U.S. motorist knows what is good for him, he will keep still and figure that the tires he has are the last he will see for a long, long time.

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