If Russia Fell

Between Germany and domination of the great Eurasian land mass, the Red army still stood. But the valiant Russians were yielding step by step the greater part of their European soil. They were falling back ever closer to Asia. Each backward step brought the United Nations closer to facing the awful question: What if Russia fell? Whatever the probabilities, that dire possibility had to be faced. How would Russia's defeat tip the scales toward the Axis? How many men, how much oil, how many planes, what raw materials would be left to fight the Battle of the World?

Three kinds of defeat were conceivable: 1) total defeat, the Red army smashed, all Russia overrun; 2) defeat ending in a negotiated peace such as Brest-Litovsk, which in 1918 left a Russia nominally independent but under Germany's economic thralldom; 3) partial defeat, with the Red army retreating behind the Urals and European Russia's people and resources abandoned to the Axis, at least for the present. The first possibilities seemed remote enough to be ruled out. The third was a real threat. Loss of European Russia would mean these things to the other United Nations:

Manpower. Russia's manpower pool of males between 18 and 35 approximates 23 million men. Even if a million or so escaped with the army, about two-thirds would be lost with European Russia. The United Nations have a manpower pool of roughly 105 million*, the Axis 28 million. But United Nations losses would be more than the figures indicate, because perhaps half the Russians have had some military training, while a great percentage of those in the United Nations' pool has not. Furthermore, Germany would have conquered enough people to furnish the 1,000,000 more workers it is estimated that she needs to man her factories, let alone those rebuilt on Russian soil.

Air Power. Not planes in operation but plane-production figures win future battles. Now British and German plane production are believed about equal, U.S. production 50% higher than Germany's, Russia's somewhat lower. If the Germans could get captured Russian aircraft factories into operation, the scales would tip ominously closer to parity. Total destruction of such plants so that they will not fall into enemy hands is a tough job, for which the Russians have little time as they fall back.

Oil. It is thought that 40% of Russia's oil is produced outside the Caucasus--but the figure may be much less. In any case, Russia would lose most of its oil and the Germans would have a potential supply of 170 million more barrels a year,* raising their total supplies to 222 million barrels. While the United Nations, with 1,958 million barrels available annually, would still have a heavy margin, transportation distances severely pare the advantage. Scorching oilfields is also a difficult, time-consuming task. The chances are that Germany could soon get production going from deep-drilled Russian wells.

Industry. With Russia the United Nations have 86% of the world's manganese (for steel); without her, 45%; with Russia, 63% of the world's iron; without her, 48%; with Russia, 37% of the bauxite (principally for aluminum); without her, 31%. Last week dispatches reported that the Germans were already using manganese from captured Russian mines. Hitler's Germany, operating with available supplies, has had the power to conquer most of Europe. Add in the raw materials, the factories and captive workers of European Russia, and the result is ominous for the United Nations' immediate future, whatever their long-range potentialities.

Without a Red army keeping the Germans engaged on the eastern front, Hitler would be free to detach a major part of his troops for use elsewhere. The problems of a second front in Europe would be enormously enlarged, for there would be no first front. German control of the Eurasian land mass would outflank Africa, surround China, leave Britain and the Americas islands in the west facing a terrible struggle to rebuild the world.

Somber as the future was, the present was grimmest of all for the people of Russia. But Russia's millions were rising to their trial with the ferocious courage of a people fired by undaunted faith in their motherland. Their Red army, battered and bleeding on the south Russian plains, was locked in history's greatest battle. Beneath Nazi bludgeoning the Red army was reeling back, back toward Stalingrad, back toward the Caspian, back toward Asia.

Rostov, gateway to the Caucasus oil, was gone, with its arms and tractor plants. Gone, too, was control of the quiet Don's west bank. Gone was most of Russia's southern transportation system, the manganese, iron, mercury and food riches of the southwest. Ahead of the Germans lay the fabulous Baku oilfields. To win them the Nazis would not only have to complete the job of cutting off the southern lines of resistance, but cross the formidable Caucasus mountains. But if they took Stalingrad, now 75 miles beyond their grasp, the hardest part of the task would be done.

Near Voronezh, 300 miles north of Rostov, the Red army lunged savagely at the Germans, striving to turn the enemy's flank and relieve pressure on the bulge toward Stalingrad. The thrust was feeble. Russia's gravest hour was at hand.

*Excluding British India and conquered European nations. Included are 49 million Chinese. Figures complied by U.S. Census Bureau from latest official censuses with projections brought forward to July 1, 1941.

* Based on 1940 production figures, when Russion still was getting 80% of her oil from the Caucacus.

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