Seven in a Row

British Conservatives gave a cautious cheer last week. In two by-elections, their candidates won handsomely. Both seats are Tory strongholds: the Arundel & Shoreham district of West Sussex is a rich man's garden, and Harrogate is a Yorkshire spa packed with retired gentlefolk. But in face of the traditional loss of popularity of the party in power, the Tories won a higher percentage of the vote than they had in the 1951 election. That made it seven by-elections in a row (six of them Tory victories) in which the Tories have increased their 1951 percentages.

The average Tory increase has been 2.1%. Tory M.P.s, chafing under the discipline required by their slim 18-vote majority, began speculating happily that a 2.1% increase, if extended countrywide, would mean a Tory majority of 100 seats at a general election this fall. Such a majority, they reasoned, would let them slip away for dinner parties and evenings in West End theaters instead of being always on call, lest Labor outpoll the government on a snap vote.

Soberer heads pointed out that by-elections in safe seats are not perfect indicators. Their counsel: wait at least until 1955, when the question of Sir Winston Churchill's retirement will surely have been settled, a successor will have taken over, and the Conservative government will have a four-year record of accomplishment to campaign on.

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