Bad News from the Oracles

Like the prudent Greek who used to take a reading at his friendly neighborhood oracle before embarking upon crucial projects, New York's Republican Nelson Rockefeller places great faith in predictions. Before his May 4 wedding to recently divorced Margaretta ("Happy") Murphy, he had taken a poll about the possible impact on his presidential chances for next year. The results remained a close-kept secret--but, obviously, they did not prevent Rocky from remarrying.

At the time of that remarriage, Rockefeller was generally considered a hands-down bet for the 1964 Republican nomination. But since then, things have changed. Politicians and publications report that their mail has been heavily in protest against the marriage. Rocky's own Albany office has received about 1,000 letters, the majority of them critical. And last week the oracles of the Gallup poll came in with a three-part survey comparing Rockefeller's popularity before and after the marriage. The results could only have been stunning to Rocky.

Among Republican voters:

Before After

Rockefeller 43% 30%

Arizona's Barry Goldwater 26 35 Michigan's George Romney 13 22

Among "independents":

Before After Rockefeller 40% 28% Goldwater 22 33 Romney 17 18

Among general voters in a trial heat against President Kennedy:

Before After

Kennedy 60% 63%

Rockefeller 36 32

Kennedy 61 60 Goldwater 35 36

In Oshkosh, B'Gosh. The main beneficiary of Rocky's decline has, quite plainly, been Conservative Goldwater. "Two months ago," says a California Republican leader, "Rockefeller seemed to have the nomination on ice. But the ice is melting fast, and now everything I hear is about Goldwater." In Missouri, which John Kennedy carried by an eyelash, several veteran observers insist that Goldwater today could not only get the state's Republican convention delegation, but could also beat Kennedy there. In Texas, State G.O.P. Chairman Peter O'Donnell has set up a National Draft-Goldwater Committee, is shoveling out carloads of stickers and buttons, organizing state Goldwater campaign forces, plans a Fourth of July Goldwater rally in the Washington, D.C., National Guard Armory, has leased an office for a Washington headquarters. Says O'Donnell: "There's no question about Texas, no question at all. The people I've talked to think that Goldwater is right on the issues, that he's got the guts to take a stand, and they like him. Governor Rockefeller has taken himself out of the race."

In Oshkosh, Wisconsin Republicans turned their recent state convention into a tub-thumping Goldwater rally, cheered his name, scattered Goldwater literature everywhere, and indulged in no activity whatever for any other G.O.P. possibility. In Washington, D.C., a top Republican said: "There's a lot more Goldwater talk. Barry is the kind of fellow that a lot of Republicans have always felt the most affection toward anyway. He was always hindered before by that old bugaboo that whispered that he just couldn't win. Well, what you hear people saying around the party now is that maybe he's the only guy who could win for us in 1964 . . . And I'm not so sure but what that's right." Adds a senior Senate Republican: "You hear a lot more people now saying that he's a real, honest-to-God Republican and we ought to go with him and give it all we've got."

The Image. But despite Goldwater's upsurge, there is a good possibility that Rockefeller is at present at his lowest ebb; the adverse impact of his remarriage may yet, in considerable part, wear off. Much depends on the public images that he and his new wife project from now on. And to give Happy wide exposure, starting within New York State itself, Rockefeller is setting up a busy schedule. This week, for example, he will escort Happy to a luncheon for the state cabinet members and their wives, a small reception, a dinner, a charity affair, a $100-a-plate state G.O.P. dinner, and a luncheon for members of the state Republican committee. Upon the outcome of this "getting-to-know you" depends the political future of the man who, were it not for his marital situation, would most probably be the Republican Party nominee in 1964.

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