Till the Next Crisis

If it hadn't been so hot, Italians might have noticed that a new government --their 25th since 1943 -- had been sworn in somewhere in the middle of last week. If it had been a new government, that is. As it was, Dio mio, there wasn't much to notice except the hottest summer in a decade. And storm warnings that a full-scale political crisis might be on the way.

Christian Democrat Aldo Moro, 47, the patient bureaucrat, was Prime Minister again. Socialist Pietro Nenni, 73, was Deputy Prime Minister again. In fact, all but two of the 26 Cabinet ministers were back in office, the same four-party center-left coalition still controlled the Cabinet, the same battles were still being fought among the coalition partners. So what else is new?

The Christian Democrats and Socialists who dominate the coalition had still not resolved the differences that kept them split during the previous six-month center-left government. The Christian Democrats want to pull out all stops to check Italy's 6% inflation, with tight wage and credit controls. The Socialists want to combine a milder anti-inflation program with a five-year economic development plan and an urban land-expropriation scheme to halt speculation and build low-cost housing.

Unable to resolve the differences, the two parties buried the alternatives: essentially, the new government's program provides for neither sweeping stabilization nor foreseeable development and reform.

Ideology & Ambitions. Moreover, in the 26 days between Cabinets, neither Moro nor Nenni had been able to heal the internal breaches that weakened their parties. Nenni, once a dogmatic Marxist and longtime partner of the Communists, in recent years has been leading his Socialist Party toward the social democracy espoused by Britain's Labor Party. But the way was bitterly blocked by the hard-line Marxist minority in the party's far left. In recent weeks Nenni, as party president, decided to crack the whip, managed to isolate his leftist opposition, even got control of Avanti, the party newspaper --and last week wrote a boldly anti-Communist editorial. But this courageous move cost him heavily: seven party leaders bolted, more threatened to bolt.

As for Prime Minister Moro, who leads one of the most insignificant factions of the Christian Democratic Party --and is Prime Minister only because he represents the most inoffensive compromise between the others--got absolutely nowhere in his battle to control the whole party. Just the reverse. Because the Christian Democrats' factions are split by ambitions rather than ideology, several top party members are gunning for him. Among them: ex-Premier Armintore Fanfani, Treasury Minister Emilio Colombo, who heads the faction that includes President Antonio Segni.

40 Factions. Moro could not resolve even the relatively minor issue--Parliament's rejection of his proposed $238,000 aid package to private schools--which brought down his last harried government. Still divided, the new government has handed the project over to technicians for "comprehensive" study.

In fact, the only reason Moro's new government was returned to power was that, in the intricate scheme of Italy's nine political parties and the 40 factions boiling within them, no other coalition seemed possible. The only other alternative, calling new nationwide elections, was dismissed for two reasons: most parties are still broke from last year's campaign, and with both inflation and unemployment rising, the democratic parties are afraid that elections might lead to dangerous Communist gains.

But new elections may be coming anyway. Some economists believe that Italy will be hit by a major crisis around Christmastime unless Moro gets a firm hold on the economy. Such a crisis, or even a minor crisis like a school-aid bill, could well topple the Cabinet again, and might force President Segni to call the elections no one (except possibly the Reds) really wants.

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