Continent of Upheaval

When John Kennedy stood before the world in 1961 and proposed his Alianza para el Progreso, his dream was a partnership that would strengthen the economic and democratic institutions of Latin America. Since then, the U.S. has sunk $3.7 billion into Latin America. Yet it remains a continent of upheaval, swept by persistent revolution that betrays a discouraging inability to maintain a stable government. Last week's revolt in Bolivia marked the ninth time a military regime has taken power by force in the last four years.

Counting the brutal dictatorships in Cuba and Haiti and the more or less benevolent ones in Paraguay and Nicaragua, 13 of the Hemisphere's 20 nations have been ruled by military force at one time or another since the Alianza was born.

Whether Bolivia's new rulers prove better or worse than the civilians they deposed remains to be seen. Recent military regimes in Latin America have established that they cannot immediately be presumed to be bad. They represent a different breed than the medal-jangling "strongman" epitomized by Argentina's exiled Juan Peron and Venezuela's imprisoned Perez Jimenez. Today's soldiers are deeply disturbed about Castroism, disgusted by graft, inefficiency and thoughtless political warfare. Right or wrong, they claim to have seized power to prevent chaos. In most cases, they seem content to return to constitutional government after imposing at least a semblance of order.

Cooling the Tempers. Two years ago in Peru, the army stepped in after an inconclusive election threatened to divide the country into warring camps; when tempers cooled, Peru had another election, and now President Fernando Belaunde Terry is successfully working to develop the country. In Ecuador, the military retrieved the country from the boozy, embarrassing excesses of President Carlos Julio Arosemena and pressed on with a sobering program of austerity and fiscal reforms. In El Salvador, burly Army Colonel Julio Rivera took power three years ago; he has now been freely elected constitutional President, is breaking the hold of the aristocracy and improving the lot of the peasants. "Only by giving liberty with reforms," says Rivera, "can we demonstrate that Fidel is a fraud." Guatemala's junta of colonels has given the country its biggest-and most surprising-boom in history. In Brazil, the question was not whether Leftist Joao Goulart would lead Latin America's biggest nation into civil war-but when. Under Humberto Castello Branco, a retired army general, the country finally seems pointed toward stability, if the reforms continue and the revolutionaries can keep from fighting among themselves.

Far less successful were the Argentine generals who ousted Arturo Frondizi in 1962 only to compound their country's problems and transfer the mess to a weak President Arturo Illia. In the Dominican Republic, the military overthrew the inept Juan Bosch, then turned over power to a triply inept civilian triumvirate. And in Honduras, the army officers who toppled President Ramon Villeda Morales last year are slowly running the country's faltering economy into the ground.

Continuing Rumbles. Of the handful of nations that have escaped recent revolution, Mexico continues to flourish under its one-party "guided democracy." Chile, which has gone 32 years without a revolution, inaugurated a new President last week-Christian Democrat Eduardo Frei, a 53-year-old former attorney who defeated a Castro-lining Marxist in the country's September elections. Wealthy little Costa Rica, with its long tradition of law and order, also seems secure. Venezuela owes its stability to the fiery determination of President Romulo Betancourt and the growing statesmanship of his successor, Raul Leoni.

But the rumbles of discontent are growing loud in Colombia, which was once regarded as the showcase of the Alianza. President Guillermo Leon Valencia was chosen two years ago as a compromise candidate of the ruling coalition of Liberals and Conservatives.

Yet he has little taste for the job, spends much of his time engrossed in poetry or hunting ducks. The economy is stagnating and the coalition is splintering apart.

Colombia's military men are openly critical, while opponents of the regime in Congress even talk about voting an "alternate" President in case Valencia "steps down."

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