Where the Jobs Are-- & Are Not

Economists can always find something to worry about even in the best of times, and right now they do not have to look far. Probably no single economic fact concerns them more, week in and week out, than the nagging problem of unemployment in the midst of prosperity. Good news seems only to increase the concern. Though the unemployment rate in March dropped to 4.7%, the lowest point in seven years, and the Labor Department last week announced that manufacturing jobs have reached a 21-year high, White House economists and Labor Department officials fear that the gain is only temporary and that the first slight slow-up in economic growth will send the unemployment rate climbing toward 5% again.

The Congressional Joint Economic Committee has called U.S. unemployment "intolerably high," and warned that it poses an even greater threat than inflation to continued prosperity. President Johnson likes to glow about the future, but he becomes somber when he speaks of unemployment. Last week, while pointing to "gratifying" gains in employment--now at a record 70,169,000 jobs--the President said: "There are still too many of our people unemployed. We need to create a substantially larger number of jobs before we will be satisfied."

As the U.S. nears the end of its 50th month of steady economic expansion, just where are the jobs being created and where are they being lost?

More White Collars. The strongest segments of job growth in industry are in transportation equipment (including Detroit's automakers) and in fabricated metals and machinery, which have accounted for four-fifths of the manufacturing employment gain in the past year. The weak sections are chiefly in industries affected by defense cuts: ordnance, aircraft, communications equipment, electrical components and shipbuilding. State and local government jobs are burgeoning (they rose by 315,000 in 1964 to 7,200,000), but federal employment has leveled off, partially as the result of a government economy drive. White-collar employment is continuing its fast growth, has now reached 44% of the labor force; there have been corresponding decreases in unskilled and semiskilled jobs in the mining, railroad and construction industries.

The most persistent sectors of unemployment continue to be among Negroes and teenagers. Negro unemployment now stands at about 10%, more than double the white rate, and that figure soars to 23% among teen-age Negro boys, 31% among teen-age girls. The civil rights drive is resulting in increased hiring of skilled and semiskilled Negro workers--Boston's First National Bank last year hired its first Negroes as white-collar employees--but many of that race's unemployed are unskilled and uneducated, have little chance of being placed. Though the thriving economy decreased teen-age unemployment slightly last year, the percentage of teenage unemployed (now 14%) is gradually rising.

Despite pockets of unemployment, many jobs are going begging. There is an increasing demand for--and shortage of--secretaries, store clerks, nurses, cooks, policemen, waiters, domestic help. The auto and steel industries, hotels, restaurants, banks and insurance companies are all looking for help. Many professional positions are clamoring to be filled. Jobs for women, instead of being reduced by the proliferation of business machines, have actually been increased by the spectacular growth of the industries that depend heavily on women workers: banks, offices, insurance companies, hotels.

An Ultimate Solution. To reduce "structural" unemployment, the Government has mounted a two-pronged attack designed to train unskilled workers--especially Negroes and teen-agers --for more demanding jobs. More than 125,000 unemployed workers are being retrained, and 275,000 have qualified for federal training grants. Almost three-quarters of those who have completed their training have already been employed by private industry. These programs are, however, stopgap measures at best. The ultimate unemployment solution, Labor Secretary Willard Wirtz believes, lies in education. "There is no place in the future society for the uneducated person," he says. "We could put up with them before, but from here on out we can't."

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