Broken Engagement

The Middle East's chronically unsuccessful suitor, Libyan Strongman Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, seems to need the services of a professional matchmaker. All his past efforts to join Libya with other Arab countries have failed. Now Libya's betrothal to Tunisia, which Gaddafi and Tunisian President Habib Bourguiba happily announced in mid-January, has apparently been broken.

Both countries at first enthusiastically welcomed the planned merger. It would have created one nation having a single constitution, flag, capital (Tunis), army and legislative, judicial and executive system, with Bourguiba as its President and Gaddafi as a Vice President. On the day of the announcement, Bourguiba hailed the development as "an event that will change the course of history." Tunis and Tripoli radios began identifying themselves as the radio of the "Arab Islamic Republic," as the new nation was to be known.

In economic terms, at least, the merger made some sense. Tunisia (pop. 5,500,000) suffers from a labor surplus, a lack of natural resources and a foreign debt of more than $1 billion. Oil-rich Libya (pop. 2,088,000) needs workers and has plenty of money for investment and industrial expansion. Last year Libya's oil wells earned more than $2 billion in foreign currency.

Gaddafi, who fancies himself the prophet of Arab unity in the tradition of the late Gamal Abdel Nasser, undoubtedly saw more than mere economic advantage to joining with Tunisia. He may have also viewed it as a means of punishing Egypt for backpedaling on its planned unification with Libya and for not even consulting him before launching the October war against Israel. Gaddafi was so miffed at Egypt's attitude that he refused to attend last November's Arab summit in Algeria.

Despite the economic advantages of unification, Tunisia and Libya are otherwise so incompatible that observers jokingly referred to them as "the odd couple." Tunisia has been influenced by the West since Roman times--most recently as a French protectorate (1883-1956) --and has a sophisticated and urbanized middle and upper class. Bourguiba, 70, was educated in French schools and has tried to modernize Tunisia by welcoming Western investors. As long ago as 1965, he called for recognition of Israel. He abrogated many strict Islamic laws, banning polygamy and urging his people to ignore the dawn-to-dusk fast during the Ramadan holy month, in order to work better.

By contrast, Gaddafi, 31, is a fundamentalist Moslem zealot, who scrupulously observes the Ramadan fast. Since coming to power in a 1969 coup, he has revived such early Islamic practices as amputating the hands of thieves and the public stoning of adulterers. He has made it illegal for foreigners as well as Libyans to drink liquor. The most consistently bellicose of Arab leaders, he has urged a holy war to exterminate Israel.

He has also attempted to eradicate all foreign influence from Libya. Everywhere, even on street signs, Arabic letters have supplanted the Latin alphabet.

These differences obviously gave Bourguiba and his advisers second thoughts about unification. Only two days after proclamation of the "Arab Islamic Republic," Bourguiba fired the chief architect of the merger, Tunisia's Foreign Minister Mohamed Masmoudi.

Then Bourguiba indefinitely postponed the referendum that was to ratify the unification. Finally, an official Tunisian communique stated that unity with Libya could come only by "stages" and after renewed negotiations--conditions that in effect consigned the project to limbo.

To some Middle East observers, Bourguiba's indecisiveness indicates that the aging leader may be losing his grip. In recent years, he has suffered at least one heart attack, arteriosclerosis, viral hepatitis and nervous collapse--requiring prolonged hospitalization in Switzerland and the U.S. His failing health has probably made him more susceptible to the scheming of his aides.

One of these is Masmoudi, a personal friend of Gaddafi's, who favors many of the Libyan leader's pro-Arab, anti-Western sentiments. Masmoudi advocated unification with Libya, and most likely saw it as a means of improving his own position in the Tunisian power struggle. At week's end, evidence of political difficulties within Tunisia mounted as soldiers occupied key Tunis intersections. Premier Hedi Nouira, a rival of Masmoudi's and a foe of unification, described the troop movements as a "precaution." They were probably meant to discourage Tunisian youth, many of whom admire Gaddafi, from taking to the streets to demonstrate in favor of the merger with Libya.

With the proposed union now stalled indefinitely, Gaddafi may start looking elsewhere for a prospective partner. As one Egyptian analyst noted last week: "Gaddafi's style requires continual movement."

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