No Joy on the Second Front

Arab-Israeli disengagement talks shifted to a new front last week. Not surprisingly, there was an accompanying drop in optimism for quick agreement. On the Israeli-Egyptian side, where discussions had been successful, withdrawal was under way with few minor hitches. But there was no joy on Israel's other, snowy battle line with Syria. There artillery and tank gunners from both sides carried on a daily long-range duel along the El Quneitra-Damascus road. The Syrians said that four of their soldiers had been wounded in the exchanges. Israel reported one killed and three wounded. They were the latest casualties in ceaseless sniping that imperils the cease-fire arranged by the U.S. Secretary of State.

Muddling Along. Even so, Henry Kissinger last week described himself as "moderately optimistic" about chances of continuing Middle East diplomatic momentum and achieving disengagement on the Syrian front that would be similar to the pullback under way on the Suez west bank. Privately, however, U.S. officials who accompanied the Secretary on his visit to Damascus last month for talks with Syrian President Hafez Assad are pessimistic that agreement will be reached easily or early. Assad has so far shown neither Sadat's willingness to negotiate nor his freedom to maneuver. The U.S. is prepared to play middleman, as it did with Egypt and Israel, but, said one official last week in Washington: "At the moment we are just muddling along."

Assad's socialist Baath regime maintains a no-compromise position toward Israel, which captured chunks of the Golan Heights in 1967 and extended its gains in the October war. But in secret meetings in Damascus last week, hardliners and moderates in the Baath National Command engaged in fierce debates over how Syria should act. The hardliners, headed by Foreign Minister Abdel Halim Khaddam, insisted that the cease-fire agreement should be Syria's only concession until Israel withdraws from all occupied territory. The moderates, led by Premier Mahmoud Ayoubi, reportedly were agreeable to a phased Israeli withdrawal. In exchange for commitments to withdraw, moreover, they would provide Israel with a list of the estimated 90 Israeli P.O.W.s being held by Syria. Assad so far has not come down on either side.

Conflicting Advice. Jerusalem refuses to negotiate with Syria until it receives a list of the P.O.W.s. The Israelis worry that prisoners have been badly treated by Syria; they note that 42 Israeli soldiers captured during the fighting were later found shot to death.

In addition to its internal debates, Syria was getting conflicting advice from other countries. Visiting Damascus last week in the course of an oil-hunting, arms-dealing swing through Arab countries, French Foreign Minister Michel Jobert told Syrian officials that he "understood" their positions. Jobert cautioned them against depending on "foreign efforts" to obtain a settlement. Palestinian guerrillas were also vocal in urging Syria not to settle. Their newspaper Falastin al-Thawra called for Arab solidarity against Israel and said, "Victory will be the lot of those who are long-winded and capable of enduring."

From other sources, however, the Syrians are feeling pressure to soften their stand and keep the momentum going. Egypt's Sadat has already made one trip to Damascus to argue for a settlement. He will doubtless go there again in order to point out the advantages of a disengagement; Egypt by negotiation is likely to recover most of the territory it lost to Israel.*

Sadat's major worry about disengagement is that Egypt, if it agrees to negotiate alone, may become isolated from the Arab world. To counter that danger, Sadat has already toured several Arab capitals to explain Egypt's position. He also dispatched Foreign Minister Ismail Fahmy to Moscow to clarify the terms of the Kissinger disengagement and seek Soviet help in persuading Syria to enter negotiations. The Russians are apparently responding. Last week Pravda published a lengthy article arguing that refusal to negotiate meant playing into Israel's hands by letting her retain Arab land. Pravda called strongly for "consolidation of the unity and coordination of the actions of Arab countries."

Despite such combined persuasion, Syria is likely to remain a difficult obstacle. The country has suffered a score of coups d'etat in 28 years of independence. Every government is understandably suspicious of radical change and chary of accommodation. For Assad, 45, a handsome mustachioed former Defense Minister, the situation is particularly tricky. Most Syrians are Sunni, members of the largest of Islam's sects. But Assad is a member of the Alawites, a relatively small, secretive Moslem group, and the country's first Alawite President. His control is precarious; he must consult with at least 21 officials representing various power groups before he can launch a major policy change. In addition, Syria's ruling Baath regime is striving to improve a backward economy and attract outside investment. All of these domestic complications, along with Syria's dogged quarter-century vendetta against Israel, mean that progress toward disengagement will be slow, even with Washington, Moscow and Cairo all pushing.

* Sadat is so pleased with his success that last week he freed six high-ranking prisoners. They included one-time Defense Minister Mohammed Fawzi and former Interior Minister Abbas Radwan, who had been imprisoned for plotting the overthrow of the government, as well as Editor Mustafa Amin, an alleged "CIA spy." Three high air force officers jailed by the late President Nasser for having lost most of their planes on the ground at the start of the 1967 war were also among those freed.

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