An Early Alarm Bell For the G.O.P.

If any seat seemed safe for the Republicans it was that of the Fifth Congressional District in Michigan, which Gerald Ford had served for 25 years before becoming Vice President. Ford had always been re-elected with more than 61% of the vote; a Democrat had not held the seat since 1912. One month before last week's special election to fill Ford's seat, his hand-picked candidate, Robert VanderLaan, led Democrat Richard VanderVeen by 60% to 28% in the polls. But on election day in Grand Rapids and environs, VanderVeen won by 51% to 44%, with the rest of the votes going to splinter candidates. It was a stinging rebuke for the G.O.P. and an early alarm bell for every Republican running for office this fall. Said William McLaughlin, Michigan's Republican state chairman: "The results should tell Nixon that there is trouble in the vineyards. We had the best candidate and the best campaign, but we had Watergate against us."

Unhappily for the Republicans, the election was an almost perfect laboratory test of their prospects for the fall. "If it sells in Grand Rapids, it will sell anywhere," market researchers are fond of saying about an area where all kinds of products are routinely tested, from Lipton's soup to Cornnuts. In many ways, the district is a cross section of the U.S., with a varied mix of incomes and ethnic groups, a blue-collar class that is suffering from increasing unemployment and a not-so-silent majority that is outraged by inflation, long lines at gasoline stations and scandal in Washington. Seizing on this unrest, the Democrats made the election a referendum on President Nixon.

Though VanderLaan and VanderVeen are not exactly Tweedledum and Tweedledee, their personalities and politics were not big issues. Both are sober, churchgoing, solid citizens-- well tailored for an industrious, no-nonsense community in America's heartland. Republican VanderLaan, 43, had won six elections to the state senate, where he is majority leader. Democrat VanderVeen, 52, a lawyer, noted that he "comes from a long line of Democrats who have lost." He had been elected to the suburban East Grand Rapids school board in 1969, but he lost by a landslide the only big race he ever entered -- to Congressman Ford in 1958.

This time, however, VanderVeen got considerable help from the United Auto Workers and the Boston political-consulting firm of Marttila, Payne, Kiley & Thorne, which had helped engineer up set victories for Father Robert Drinan in a Massachusetts congressional race in 1970 and for Joseph Biden in a 1972 U.S. Senate election in Delaware. The Democrats never let the voters forget that VanderLaan was a man from Nixon's party, while their candidate was "his own man." In a district where Republicanism is considered next to godliness, the Democrats emphasized how far the idols had fallen. In one campaign ad, a metalworker complained about the low income tax that Nixon paid. Republicans were also disturbed by Nixon's meager church contributions. With an adroit twist of the political knife, Democrat VanderVeen said that Nixon should resign so that ever-popular Jerry Ford would become President. If Nixon did not leave office voluntarily, said VanderVeen, impeachment should go forward. POLITICS

As he saw his huge lead steadily dwindle, VanderLaan felt helpless. Like other Republicans round the nation, he UP, was damned if he criticized the President and damned if he did not. Hard-core Nixon supporters, making up about 37% of the district's electorate, would not tolerate an attack on the President; moderates would be alienated if he kept still. He chose what he thought was the least of the evils and said as little as possible. VanderLaan, almost alone among political observers, figured that his opponent would get a 52% majority of the vote. "There is a feeling of distrust and hurt pride in this country," he said in a postmortem. "The unhappy voter wanted to tell the President he is unhappy. The only way he could make himself heard was to vote for the Democrat." Republicans worked hard to get the vote out and may regret it.

Many Republicans, swallowing hard, voted for the Democrats--some for the first time in their lives. A member of Jerry Ford's Episcopal church could not make up his mind until he entered the voting booth. As he recalled: "I said to myself, 'Dammit, I'm not going to vote for what I don't believe in any more.' " Then he pulled the Democratic lever. Attorney Harold Sawyer, who had been state co-chairman of Lawyers for the Re-Election of the President in 1972, also voted for VanderVeen. "If we allow Watergate to be swept under the rug," he explained, "I think we will have lost our ability to self-govern."

Shortly after last week's votes, President Nixon tried to assure G.O.P. congressional leaders that special elections are not "harbingers" of the future. But other Republicans knew better. "We took a kicking," said House Minority Leader John Rhodes. G.O.P. National Chairman George Bush wondered whether "Watergate might destroy the Republican Party." VanderVeen's victory would doubtless encourage many Democratic underdogs to challenge Republican incumbents this November.

Indeed, the election results were scarcely tallied before several Democrats put out the word that they were available to run in the adjoining Michigan district against Republican Representative Guy Vander Jagt, who had also been sure that he had a safe seat--until last week. As State Chairman McLaughlin summed up: "If you can lose the Fifth District, you can lose anything."

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