Gunning for Trudeau

Ever since his unexpected battering at the polls 16 months ago, Canada's flamboyant Prime Minister Pierre Elliot Trudeau has been living on a political razor's edge. Forced to form a minority government after the 1972 vote that wiped out his Liberal Party's majority, leaving the Liberals with 109 of Parliament's 263 seats, Trudeau, 54, was expected by many pundits to be out of office within half a year. But the Conservatives were unable to exploit the strength of their 107 seats because of internal disputes over party leadership, and Trudeau has managed to survive by forming an uneasy alliance with the stronger of Canada's two minority parties, the socialist New Democratic Party, which has 31 seats. Last week the Conservatives finally consolidated their forces into fighting trim, apparently ready to make a serious effort to unseat Trudeau from the post he has held since 1968.

At their biennial policy convention in Ottawa, the Conservatives voted resounding approval of Party Leader Robert Stanfield, 59, as the man who could lead them to power, giving him 86% of the votes in a confidence motion. Stanfield is known for his single-minded determination and unquestioned integrity.

In making him their undisputed leader, the Conservatives submerged a good deal of the intraparty frictions and factionalism that have impaired their attempts to unseat Trudeau. The convention also produced the Conservatives' strongest statement of national policy to date, endorsing Stanfield's position in favor of wage and price controls to curb inflation and--reflecting the country's mood of intensified nationalism--approving resolutions calling for Canadian ownership and control of at least one major international company in each sphere of industry.

No sooner was the Conservative convention over than the Prime Minister announced that he would go on a two-day "main-streeting" (walking down streets shaking hands) and speech-making tour of the opposition stronghold of Saskatchewan. It will be his first such journey into the region since the election, and was indicative of Trudeau's fighting spirit. After a moody period of dejection following his political setback, the first of his career, the Prime Minister in recent months has shown renewed vigor.

He clearly needs all the energy he can summon to stay in power. Though the support of the New Democratic Party has kept him afloat, the coalition is shaky at best. Trudeau has met just enough of the N.D.P.'s principal demands to make his government's survival possible. He has promised to create a national petroleum company to increase government control of Canada's petroleum resources and, in the face of last year's 10% inflation, agreed to increase milk and bread subsidies and set up a food-prices review board. But many in the N.D.P. want Trudeau to go further, such as nationalizing major industries and levying heavier taxes on corporations. A clash with Trudeau over any of these issues could cause the N.D.P. to desert him, bringing down his government.

Trudeau has sought to widen his support by actively courting both the left and labor, making him sound at times more like an N.D.P. leader than a fiscally cautious Liberal. In his new image as champion of the leftist causes, he has struck out at the "myth" that high wage demands by unions have contributed to inflation. "It has not been the average working man who has exerted upward pressure on prices," he claimed earlier this month. At the same time, he has begun lambasting the "big guys," the multinational corporations. "We will not allow profiteers to pile up unearned windfall profits at the expense of the people of Canada," Trudeau declares.

Fighting Words. Trudeau's dependence upon the N.D.P. has become an object of Conservative derision. Conservative Leader Stanfield taunts him about running the country through a "coat-room coalition" that has resulted in "almost two years of negotiated inertia."

Stanfield also sarcastically notes that the Trudeau government could hardly be expected to be on its toes when it "is literally living on its knees" at the mercy of the N.D.P.

Stanfiejd's fighting words have the hyperbole of a campaign speech--which is exactly how he intended them.

Though Trudeau's popularity increased to 43% (up from 35%) in the polls, the once swinging Prime Minister faces numerous sobering problems. Inflation seems insoluble, labor has been making strong wage demands, and the Prime Minister suffers from deep-rooted unpopularity in the west because of what many westerners view as his pro-eastern-Canadian oil policy. Tory strategists thus believe that Trudeau is still as vulnerable as ever. A no-confidence vote on any of the key issues could force Trudeau to call a national election, something he would very much like to avoid. The results might go against him, toppling him from power. Says Stanfield: "I want an election soon. I think we will win it."

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