The Race for Second Place

Throughout the 16-year history of the Fifth Republic, the Gaullists' favorite campaign slogan has been "Us or Chaos"--an unsubtle warning that without their leadership, France would revert to the political turmoil and revolving-door Cabinets of the Fourth Republic. Yet last week it was the Gaullists who seemed to be creating the chaos. President Georges Pompidou died without designating an heir. As a result, there has been such a mad scramble for the Gaullist mantle that Gilbert Grandval, one leader of the movement, begged his colleagues to "stop your unseemly show of ambitions and think of France."

His words were of no avail. Gaullist hopefuls have been engaging in so many maneuvers and intrigues that supporters of Leftist Candidate Francois Mitterrand, 57, who is backed by both the Socialists and the Communists, have wryly turned the old slogan on its head, declaring, "Mitterrand or Chaos!"

Sounding the Tocsin. The leading Gaullist candidate is Jacques Chaban-Delmas, 59, who was widely criticized for his poor taste in declaring for the presidency only three hours after Pompidou's burial. Nonetheless, he was promptly endorsed by the central committee of the Union des Democrates pour la Cinquieme Republique, the Gaullist party. Its leaders believe that only Chaban, a vital and attractive campaigner who has been mayor of Bordeaux since 1947, can beat Mitterrand and keep Gaullism in power.

Chaban, who was Pompidou's Premier from 1969 to 1972, has been preparing for the race for two years. He has surrounded himself with a small brain trust, traveled widely in France, and even journeyed to China to build up his image as an expert in foreign affairs. In his first press conference as a candidate last week, Chaban pledged to resume the slightly leftist "New Society" program he had inaugurated as Premier. At that time he linked pay raises and pensions of people employed in state-owned industries to productivity gains and the cost of living. Last week Chaban also hinted at a more conciliatory attitude toward the Common Market and the U.S. To satisfy right-wing Gaullists, he sounded a tocsin that French voters are likely to hear again and again in the campaign by warning that the "Socialo-Communist" coalition that is backing Mitterrand would make France a totalitarian "hell."

Chaban's most serious challenger for the Gaullist vote is Valery Giscard d'Estaing, 48, the Fifth Republic's perennial Finance Minister. Although not technically a Gaullist, Giscard leads the Independent Republicans, part of the middle-of-the-road "majority" formed by Pompidou five years ago. Giscard's reputation as the intellectual aristocrat who produced the French economic miracle is clouded by an annual inflation rate of 15.6% and a 28% drop in French foreign reserves in the past five months. Nonetheless, he will attract many Gaullist votes and can boast that he is the only candidate to have had Pompidou's "confidence to the very end."

Giscard may also win the backing of the centrist parties if he moves leftward, as he indicated he might last week. He pledged to establish a new "presidential majority" more open to the center and emphasized that maintaining full employment would take priority over curbing inflation.

Early polls show Giscard and Chaban splitting the Gaullist vote down the middle. In a feeble, self-serving attempt to solidify the party, Premier Pierre Messmer last week announced that he was prepared to become a "unity" candidate if the other Gaullists would drop out. His candidacy lasted a mere eight hours. Although Giscard kept a discreet silence, Chaban--in a five-minute talk with Messmer--made clear that he was in the running to stay. Paris politicians later spread rumors that Messmer had threatened to release secret "dossiers" that would compromise Chaban.*

With the Gaullists divided, it now seems certain that Socialist Mitterrand will win the most votes on the May 5 ballot. A poll published by Le Figaro gave Mitterrand 36% of the vote, Giscard 27% and Chaban 26%. If Mitterrand picks up enough support to win a clean majority--a Gaullist nightmare--he will become Pompidou's successor. The probability is that he will gain somewhat less than 50% of the vote, which means that Mitterrand will then face the second-ranking candidate in a runoff on May 19. Thus the real contest now is between Chaban and Giscard for second place in the first round of the election.

Fringe Candidates. Mitterrand's chances of ultimate victory are far from certain. Because the Socialists and Communists constitute less than half of the French electorate, he cannot win on the second ballot unless he gains the support of a large number of Frenchmen who have traditionally feared what might happen if Communists came to power. Mitterrand has tried to allay these fears by portraying himself as a responsible statesman and has stressed his commitment to civil liberties. But at a press conference last week, Mitterrand conceded that if elected, he would appoint Communists to Cabinet posts in his government.

At week's end the race for the succession was complicated slightly by the presence of a score of fringe candidates who have a potential nuisance value but no real possibility of whining. The most serious of them is Jean Royer, 53, the independent mayor of Tours, who has become the darling of France's petite bourgeoisie by campaigning against pornography and sponsoring laws to protect the small businessman from the competition of big stores. Because he might be able to attract the support of France's 570,000 small shopkeepers, he could cut deeply into the potential first-ballot strength of both Chaban and Giscard. Nonetheless, there was little doubt that the real race involved the leftist front runner and the two men competing to be No. 2.

* On French city streets, however, drivers had more immediate matters on their minds. They were gleefully ripping up the $6 and $8 violation tickets they had received from meter maids for failing to deposit coins in parking meters. Reason: every time a new President is elected, he customarily has the National Assembly vote a law retroactively pardoning all parking offenders.

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