A Safe Prediction

In a commentary on the CBS Morning News, Correspondent John Hart admonished fellow journalists to avoid making predictions in their impeachment coverage. "One sure way to be out ahead of the story is to report it before it happens," he said. "The trouble is that predictions foster expectations, and expectations have some influence on the future."

Of course they do. Hart's point applies in a variety of situations, perhaps most notably election reporting. An authoritative-sounding business story about a company's future prospects can measurably affect those prospects (as well as the stock price). Even publicity about a race horse can have impact on betting volume and track odds.

Yet Hart and others who offer similar well-intentioned criticism are on shaky ground. Hart said that it is perfectly all right for newsmen to report the predictions of assorted experts and interested parties, but not to make any themselves. A fine distinction: such stories can influence events just as much as outright forecasts by journalists, which, in any case, usually reflect many people's views. Both newsmen and their audiences have a large, very human itch to look ahead and even around corners. It is safe to predict that prediction journalism is here to stay.

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