How the Soundings Were Taken

The problems that trouble the U.S. today are complex and interrelated in unexpected ways. To plumb and analyze them, TIME Soundings will report quarterly on the mood, temper and outlook of Americans. Soundings consists of a series of political and social indicators that were developed for TIME by Yankelovich, Skelly & White, Inc. The report differs from more traditional opinion polls in two respects: 1) Soundings not only measures shifts in public opinion but also tries to monitor the underlying trends that produce sea changes in public attitudes, and 2) the indicators are based on an amalgam of responses to hundreds of different questions.

The information in the accompanying story came from two separate studies. The first, in late April and early May, was based on a national probability sample of 1,238 personal interviews; the second, in mid-July, on a matched probability sample of 1,040 interviews. Results for each individual survey have an error factor of plus or minus 3%. In the estimation of trends from one survey to the next, the error factor is plus or minus 4%. The first report includes five indicators.

ECONOMIC DISTRESS involves people who find themselves in serious economic trouble. The indicator was derived from a series of questions about urgent problems, among them difficulties in meeting bills, mortgage and rent payments, deep-seated fears of losing jobs because of an economic downturn, and serious worries about not being able to save for the future.

SOCIAL RESENTMENT describes those people who are extremely upset by recent trends in the U.S. The indicator was drawn from answers to questions revealing a sense that things are out of control, the country is changing too fast, ordinary people are powerless to change things, and traditional values have been supplanted by a new social morality that encourages pornography, permissiveness and handouts to undeserving people.

CONSERVATISM is an indicator referring to people who meet one or both of two conditions: 1) they describe themselves as conservatives; 2) they hold at least four out of five beliefs that most sharply differentiate self-described conservatives from everyone else. All those polled were asked more than 100 questions that were suggested by past surveys and covered the generally accepted range of conservative thought and attitudes.

The analysts assumed that conservatism was best defined by those issues on which there is the greatest difference of opinion between conservatives and nonconservatives. The sharpest differences occurred over five basic concepts.

Thus, for example, to the proposition that "the American way of life is superior to that of any other country," 87% of conservatives but only 36% of nonconservatives assented, a divergence of 51 points. The other four tenets, in order of the degree of spread, are: 1) conviction that people have become too selfish and self-centered, putting their own interests ahead of their families and the country, 2) strong support for reinstituting the death penalty, 3) commitment to organized religion, and 4) belief that American Communism represents a great danger to the country.

POLITICAL INTEREST AND ACTIVISM, two related indicators, cover the people who have the most direct effect on the outcome of elections. Those who ranked high in the "interest" indicator follow political developments regularly through television, radio and print, seldom miss watching a televised presidential address or press conference, like to discuss politics, and often are asked by other people for advice on politics.

To qualify as a political activist, a registered voter had to have worked for or donated money to political candidates or parties, attended political meetings and rallies, written or otherwise made contact with public officials, or been involved in an activist organization like a local party club, an environmental, consumer or race-relations group.

Future studies, at approximately three-month intervals, will measure changes in the five indicators, as well as add fresh ones. The results should identify the major opinion trends that will, among other things, help shape the outcome of the 1976 presidential election.

This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so viewer discretion is required.