And Quietly the Med Flows Red

Winston Churchill once referred to southern Europe as "the soft underbelly" of the continent. Three decades later, his anatomical description has fresh currency and a new political meaning. Scarcely six months ago, the corners of the southern tier--Portugal and Greece --were firmly controlled by militantly anti-Communist dictatorships. Not only have the dictators disappeared, but long-repressed Communist parties are eagerly grasping for a share of political power. In the center of the tier, meanwhile, yet another impotent center-left government fell in Italy last week, raising fears in some quarters that Communists might be allowed into the governing majority. In short, there was a clear although still distant danger that Communists might come to power across Europe's Mediterranean littoral. Items:

> In Greece, Premier Constantine Caramanlis invited Communists into the political arena. He legalized the party, which had been proscribed since the 1944-49 civil war. His move allows Communists to field candidates for 300 parliamentary seats in next month's general election. To improve their chance, pro-and anti-Moscow factions within the party buried their differences temporarily last week in a "union of the left." It may gain at least 25% of the vote.

> In Portugal (see following story), President Antonio de Spinola resigned with a dramatic warning against the left. Right-wingers in Spinola's postfascist government were quickly purged by the pro-left officers of the ruling junta.

> In Italy, as the 36th government since the collapse of Fascism ended with Premier Mariano Rumor's resignation, efforts to form a 37th hesitantly began. Cementing a new center-left coalition in economically battered Italy will not be easy. The next Christian Democratic Premier might be tempted to take the first step toward the so-called "historic compromise" and grant the Communists a consultative policy role. With 1.6 million members and 175 of 629 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, they already are the second strongest party after the Christian Democrats, and even outside the government, Communist influence increases with each crisis.

> In Spain, where opposition parties are banned by the regime, Communists have quietly begun to plan for the day when Generalissimo Francisco Franco dies and Western Europe's oldest dictatorship is replaced by more representative government. The Communists in Spain are probably the most disciplined and dedicated force on the political left. They have operated secretly inside the country and more openly outside.

In Greece, Portugal and Italy, the Communists these days are well be haved; there are no threats of revolution, no promises of immediate radical change. By avoiding Moscow bear hugs and pledging to abide by democratic processes, they entice voters who have lived through totalitarian regimes. At the same time, Communists along the southern tier are capitalizing on anti-Americanism -- particularly in Greece, where Washington is currently despised for its Turkish tilt over Cyprus. The danger to the U.S. and the Western alli ance in button-down Communism is that it could eventually lead to a weakening of NATO or the elimination of U.S. military bases that underpin the defenses of Western Europe.

Portugal's Spinola is not the only politician frightened by a Communist momentum that was strong enough to take 9 million of 30 million votes in Italy's last general election and may well claim the allegiance of half a million Greeks (out of an electorate of only 6 million). Elsewhere in Western Europe, there is trepidation about the possibility of a domino effect. France, for instance, has a Communist Party just as bourgeois in image as Italy's and almost as large and entrenched. Under certain circumstances -- a deepening of the economic crisis, for example -- the Communist in fluence and appeal might spread from the underbelly to the rest of Europe in disturbing ways.

This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so viewer discretion is required.