The White Man's New Burden

And the revel went whirlingly on, until at length there commenced the sounding of midnight upon the clock. And then the music ceased ... thus it happened, perhaps, that more of thought crept, with more of time, into the meditations of the thoughtful among those who revelled.

--Edgar Allan Poe, The Masque of the Red Death

For many whites in the Rhodesian capital of Salisbury, it was pleasure as usual last weekend--an afternoon at the race track followed, for some, by an early evening sail at Lake Mcllwaine before returning to the club for some light-hearted chat about the upcoming Jacaranda Festival. To help keep the mood buoyant, the streets were decked with Christmas lights. But there was something eerily unsettling about the gaiety. Like Poe's doomed revelers, the white Rhodesians, who make up only 4% of the country's population of 6 million, seemed bent on insulating themselves from a harsh reality that now threatens their privileged way of life.

Hemmed In. When the black liberation group, Frelimo, took over control of Mozambique last month, Rhodesia found itself with 700 additional miles of potentially hostile border. Already hemmed in by black-ruled Zambia to the north and Botswana to the west (see map), Rhodesia now has only about 150 miles of border that abut a white state--South Africa. As one Rhodesian army general observed, "Rhodesia is no longer a buffer zone for the white South. Just look at the map. Today we are more like a sore thumb."

The dismantling of Portugal's 500-year-old African empire has left Rhodesia perilously vulnerable both militarily and economically. Arms and money that once fueled the successful liberation movements in Guinea-Bissau, Angola and Mozambique may now be used to supply Rhodesia's major guerrilla group, the Zimbabwe African National Union (ZANU). Mozambique's interim Premier, Joaquin Chissano, has taken a moderate stance toward Rhodesia, but Frelimo Chief Samora Machel, who will become President next June when Mozambique achieves full independence, has vowed to support a black liberation struggle against Prime Minister Ian Smith's white supremacist regime. Frelimo insurgency experts, many of whom were trained by the Viet Cong, are already instructing ZANU guerrillas in the use of new, sophisticated weapons, including Russian-made, heat-seeking SA-7 missiles that could decimate Rhodesia's small (45 craft) air force.

Guarded Villages. Zambia also offers shelter and armed support for guerrillas operating along Rhodesia's northern border. To discourage collaboration with ZANU, the Rhodesian army in the past two months has moved more than 60,000 tribesmen from the northeastern lands of Chiweshe and Madziwa into guarded villages reminiscent of South Viet Nam's "strategic hamlets."

Fully 80% of Rhodesia's exports pass through the Mozambique ports of Beira and Lourenso Marques. Closure of these vital outlets would mean swift economic strangulation for Rhodesia. A much longer rail route exists through Botswana to South Africa's ports. Last month, however, Botswana's President Sir Seretse Khama announced that he Intended to take over the rail line, and he might well close it to Rhodesian traffic. Thanks to a crash construction program, a direct rail link to South Africa was recently opened, but this new single-track line cannot possibly handle all the nation's exports. Moreover, it feeds into South Africa's already overcrowded rail system and ports.

In dealing with the threat of intensified military and economic harassment, Rhodesia can expect little help from South Africa, which is aware of the pragmatic necessity of reckoning with the new black states. Prune Minister John Vorster has repeatedly implied that he would prefer a stable black government in Rhodesia to an unstable white one.

He refused to support last month's abortive revolt by right-wing white settlers against Mozambique's black government and quietly restrained mercenaries from going there. Vorster pointedly offered only temporary refuge to fleeing Mozambique whites, most of whom will not be allowed to resettle in South Africa.

The Mozambique government, for its part, has so far made no hostile moves toward South Africa. Mutual economic self-interest probably insures a peaceful if strained coexistence between the two countries.

Unless Mozambique is willing to accept a marked decline in living standards, it needs the $300 million that South Africa annually pours into its economy through export transits, tourism and remittances from the 100,000 Mozambique workers who make up roughly 25% of South Af rica's mining force. South Africa has also signed a ten-year contract to buy power from Mozambique's $400 million Cabora Bassa Dam, which begins operations later this month.

Partial Call-Up. South Africa none theless is prepared for the worst when Maoist Leader Machel comes to power in June. A partial call-up of reserves has already bolstered army strength along the 360-mile border with Mozambique.

Defense spending has been increased 38% above last year's $716 million. Cir cumventing a British arms embargo, South Africa bought 41 British-made Centurions and Tigercat antiaircraft missiles from Jordan. For the first time, the armed forces are organizing battal ions of black, colored and Asian soldiers, and women are being encouraged to en list for rear-echelon duty.

South Africa's heads-up policy to ward the changing realities of the continent stands in marked contrast to Rhodesia's ostrich-like pose. TIME Nairobi Bureau Chief Lee Griggs observed last week: "There is little concern about the ominous signs. As the odds mount against them, Rhodesians are eagerly participating in a contest to compose lyr ics for their newly adopted national an them. The tune, replacing God Save the Queen, is the Ode to Joy from Beethoven's Ninth Symphony. "

This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so viewer discretion is required.