Gradual Steps Toward a Settlement

Achieving a peace settlement in the Middle East has begun to resemble the allegorical journey of a thousand miles:

impossible to accomplish in one big step, attainable only through many small ones. That at least seems to describe Secretary of State Henry Kissinger's strategy of "gradualism," which he began pursuing after last year's October war. It has included ceasefires, face-to-face Israeli-Arab meetings, and partial withdrawal of Israeli forces occupying Sinai and the Golan Heights. This week, in the wake of Kissinger's sixth postwar visit to the area, comes another crucial moment.

In Morocco's capital of Rabat, 20 member nations of the Arab League will convene for a summit meeting. Their main purpose will be to resolve the convoluted problem of who will represent the Palestinians in future peace discussions, an issue that has become increasingly explosive in the Middle East. Depending on how conciliatory the Arabs feel, the meeting could produce another step forward--or a giant leap backward.

As he neared the end of his seven-day shuttle through the region last week, Kissinger tried to lighten the situation with some levity during a three-hour call on Algerian President Houari Boumedienne. "You should invite me to the summit," joked the Secretary of State. "I've met more Arab heads of state than some Arab foreign ministers." Kissinger obviously will not be welcome at Rabat, but he is confident that his gradualist strategy will be put forward by President Anwar Sadat of Egypt.

Sadat will be faced with the conflicting claims of King Hussein of Jordan and the Palestine Liberation Organization, headed by Yasser Arafat, each insisting that he represents the Palestinians living on the occupied West Bank. As a compromise, Sadat is considering the formation of an "Eastern Arab Front," which would probably include Egypt and Syria as well as Hussein and the P.L.O. One possibility is that Egypt might even do the negotiating for the front; Hussein would be involved in the negotiations, but it would be up to the Palestinians to designate by plebiscite their choice of a government to succeed Israeli occupation forces. The sticking point is that Israel is ready to negotiate with Hussein, but not with the P.L.O. in any way. Premier Yitzhak Rabin told Labor Party leaders in Tel Aviv last week: "There is only one meeting place for Israel and the terrorist organizations, and that is on the battlefield."

Claim to Legitimacy. The P.L.O.'s claim to sole legitimacy as spokesman for the Palestinians is vigorously backed by radical Arab states. The organization's status was strengthened last week, when the United Nations General Assembly voted overwhelmingly to invite the P.L.O. to sit as "representative of the Palestinian people" in a U.N. debate on the Palestinian question, probably to be held next month. There were 105 yes votes and 20 abstentions. Only Israel, the U.S., Bolivia and the Dominican Republic voted no.

If gradualism carries at Rabat, the clouds of war that have been gathering in the region should diminish. Kissinger has laid on a seventh trip for early November, after the summit. He has also worked out an optimistic schedule for further discussions, beginning with the resumption of Egyptian-Israeli talks, which will probably be held in Washington. One possible scenario the negotiators might agree on: another Israeli pullback of 75 miles in the Sinai, this time to a line running from El Arish to Sharm el Sheikh. This would free Israeli-held Egyptian oilfields at Abu Rudeis, but the U.S. would be committed to providing a comparable supply of oil (100,000 bbl. a day) for Israel. Egypt, in return, would have to let cargoes for Israel through the Suez Canal when it reopens to traffic in March or at least permit the resumption of some sort of Cairo-Tel Aviv airline flights by third-nation carriers.

After the Egyptian-Israeli talks have started again, discussions about the West Bank can begin. At that point, the Middle East's thousand-mile journey would be well under way--though far from over. Since the October war, the Israelis and Arabs have rearmed massively. Egyptian Foreign Minister Ismail Fahmy, visiting Moscow last week in search of more aid, persuaded Soviet Boss Leonid Brezhnev to make his first visit to Cairo in January, indicating that yet more Russian arms may soon be on their way to Egypt. Both sides have also escalated their threatening rhetoric, vowing that In a new war cities would not be spared. In such a volatile atmosphere, any stumble along the journey carries with it the potential for touching off the most violent war in the Middle East's history.

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