The Electorate: Feeling Helpless and Depressed

On the eve of this week's elections, Americans were in a bleak and pessimistic mood. To an overwhelming extent, they were preoccupied with rising prices, and with good reason: one out of three families considered itself in serious financial trouble because of inflation. Yet most people thought that neither the Government nor business was likely to provide the leadership and solutions needed to heal the economy. Things seemed out of control to many Americans, and there was a disturbing sense that conditions might soon get even worse. Indeed, nearly one out of two feared that there was no way that the U.S. could avoid an economic depression as serious as the one in the 1930s.

That gloomy profile of the nation is limned in the latest TIME Soundings, a quarterly national survey of the mood, temper and outlook of Americans as the country approaches the 1976 presidential election. Soundings consists of a series of political and social indicators that were developed for TIME by Yankelovich, Skelly & White, Inc., the New York-based public opinion research firm. The indicators are Economic Distress, Social Resentment, Conservatism, Political Activism and, new this quarter, the National Mood. These results were based on telephone interviews in early October with a cross-section of 1,023 Americans of voting age. Similar studies were made in May and July (TIME, Aug. 26). Results for each individual survey have an error factor of plus or minus 3%; in estimating trends from one quarter to another, the error factor is plus or minus 4%.

THE TRENDS. The latest survey provides a context for interpreting the results of this week's election. Items:

>The proportion of Americans in economic distress rose to 33%, from 28% in July and 23% in May. Predominantly young (44% under 35 years) and blue-collar (53%), these people find themselves unable to pay bills or save for the future and worry about losing their jobs because of the economy.

> Social resentment, which measures those people who are morally angered by social and political trends in the U.S., stayed at 33% of those polled, about the same as in July. But almost half of the resentful were also economically distressed, up strikingly from 34% last summer. If these two groups continue to converge, it could create a large, corrosive group in the electorate.

>The tide of conservatism still runs strong. Fifty-three percent of those polled--up slightly from the previous surveys--either called themselves conservatives or held conservative views for the most part.

> Political activism, the indicator that includes those people who contribute time or money to candidates or engage in political activities, stayed at 12% of those polled, about the same level as in July. The apathy, resistant to the opportunities for political participation offered by the off-year election campaign, apparently stems from public malaise over Watergate and inflation and the widespread feeling that the economy is out of hand.

> The national mood, the indicator that evaluates the state of the nation's morale and confidence in the future, was markedly depressed. Some 79% of those polled were very or somewhat pessimistic, down only slightly from 81% in May, which was several months before Richard Nixon resigned as President. The figures indicate that the national gloom then over Watergate has been replaced by despair about inflation.

INFLATION. Massive worries about rising prices have muffled all other public concerns, as was shown when people were asked what national issues particularly worried them. The responses, compared with those to the same question six months earlier:

October May The economy and inflation 78% 62% Watergate corruption 19 38 Crime 5 20 Energy shortages 4 28 Food shortages 3 15 Drugs 1 12 Southeast Asia 1 2 Pollution 1 7 Other foreign issues 1 4 Middle East less than 1% 5

When they were asked what problem most frightened them, people had trouble deciding between runaway inflation (55%) and a further slowdown in the economy (41%).

The survey found a miasma of fear and confusion over inflation. Some 80% now report daily concern about high food prices (up 9 points since May), 27% worry a lot about losing their jobs (up 12 points), and 54% are very apprehensive that their savings will be wiped out by inflation (up 13 points). Looking ahead, 86% anticipate that prices will continue to rise; 73% expect a further increase in unemployment.

Perhaps even more telling, 45% of those polled think that the nation is heading for another Great Depression, though 46% disagree. Expectations of a depression were most common among the economically distressed (63%), the socially resentful (59%), union members (51%), people under 25 years of age (54%) and members of minority groups (60%). Such gloomy expectations were found least among people over 65 (34%) and Republicans (29%).

Preoccupation with economic conditions has contributed to what Yankelovich regards as a growing isolationist trend in the country. Only 2% of those polled listed any aspect of foreign affairs as a major national concern. Furthermore, contrary to the opinion of all respected economists, 55% of the people surveyed believe that inflation can be solved by domestic action alone. Only 38% understand that handling inflation requires worldwide solutions and agreements. The belief that inflation is primarily a domestic matter cut across party lines and political views.

Rising prices appear to have badly damaged the public images of Government and big business. Asked whom they blame most for inflation, 32% said the Federal Government, 24% said big business. Asked who has been the main beneficiary of inflation, 43% said big business and 17% said rich people. Compounding the problem, the public doubts that any major institution in the country can solve inflation, as was shown when people were asked how much confidence they have in the ability of the following to handle it:

A Lot None President Ford 19% 15% Democratic Party 18 21 Senate 11 21 House 12 25 Ford's Economic Advisers 9 27 Business 9 37 Republican Party 6 39 Unions 9 43

ANTI-INFLATION MEASURES. No matter what their opinion of Ford's ability to deal with inflation, 61% said that they were satisfied with the job he was doing as President. But they disagreed overwhelmingly with one element of his economic proposals. By 73% to 8%, those polled were opposed to tax raises to cut individual spending. They also were against reducing the federal budget if the cuts involved medical care and education programs (39% opposed v. 24% in favor).

TIME Soundings found that Americans generally want to stop selling wheat to the Soviet Union (57% agree that sales should be stopped v. 14% opposed), trim foreign aid even to friendly nations (38% v. 17%), loosen up credit (44% v. 24%), bring back wage and price controls (35% v. 26%) and cut defense spending (35% v. 28%). On at least one point, the public seems to agree with Ford. By 34% to 27%, those polled were willing to give some tax incentives to business--even though many blame big business for inflation--if the incentives would improve the economy.

But the degree to which respondents agreed with these policies differed widely according to their economic circumstances. For example, people in economic distress set a much higher priority than the general public on reimposing wage-price controls, loosening up credit and reducing defense spending.

Most striking, the analysts found that conservatives were sharply divided on what to do about inflation. The surveys established that far from being a homogeneous group, conservatives were divided into what could be called the more classic (58%) and the more populist (42%) constituencies on the basis of the latter group's angry, resentful feeling that it has been left out of the American mainstream. The populist conservatives also tended to be less well educated and less affluent--45% are in economic distress, compared with 28% of the classic conservatives.

The populist conservatives more strongly supported reimposing wage-price controls (50% v. 31% of the classic group). They also tended to be more in favor of loosening up credit (51% v. 40%), giving tax incentives for business (44% v. 36%), cutting defense spending (40% v. 28%) and ending wheat sales to Russia (69% v. 60%). But about 70% of both conservative groups agreed that taxes should not be increased to cut spending by individuals, and 40% of both groups thought that the federal budget should be balanced, even if it means increasing unemployment. In looking ahead, 55% of the populist conservatives predicted that the U.S. is heading for a serious economic depression, a view held by only 43% of the classic conservatives.

OTHER ISSUES. Soundings also plumbed a number of other issues. Among them: > A large majority of Americans (68%) believe that it was wrong for the Central Intelligence Agency to interfere in the internal politics and elections of another country like Chile, 12% say it was right, and 20% have no opinion.

> Americans want the Watergate cover-up trial to go through; indeed, 67% would oppose a presidential pardon of the defendants now. But people are not altogether at ease about the trial. The survey found that 46% believe that the defendants cannot get a fair trial at the present time, though 41% disagree.

> More than half (57%) of those surveyed believe that Ford was wrong to pardon Nixon; only 33% believe that the President did the right thing. Moreover, 46% reported that the pardon will be an important or fairly important factor in the way they decide to vote in 1976, if Ford runs.

Even so, TIME Soundings found that Americans regard Ford as the most acceptable of all the leading potential Republican and Democratic candidates for President. Some 56% found him acceptable (24% did not); in May 43% regarded him as acceptable (36% did not). Far behind him in acceptability now were Vice President-designate Nelson Rockefeller (33%) and California Governor Ronald Reagan (34%).

Among the Democrats, Alabama Governor George Wallace has declined in acceptability to 38% from 42% in May; in both surveys, slightly more than half found him unacceptable. But the potential candidacy of Washington Senator Henry ("Scoop") Jackson seems to have flourished, though his major handicap still is the fact that about half of the people surveyed do not know enough about him to have an opinion. Still, his rating since May has climbed from 25% to 30%, while the proportion of those who find him unacceptable has declined slightly, from 21% to 18%.

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