Manifold Effects of Hard Times

Like especially insidious strains of virus, recession and inflation are spreading their contagion into areas of American life that most people rarely think of as part of the economy: ballet, sports, even religion. All involve the exchange of money for goods and services of a sort, and so all are feeling the effects of hard times--though in widely varying patterns of immunity and susceptibility to infection. Among the stricken:

CITY SERVICES. As tax revenues shrink and inflation drives up costs, cities throughout the U.S. are biting into budgets and cutting back on services. In Chicago, 600 people are being trimmed from the city's civil service payroll of some 42,000, and the municipal tuberculosis sanitarium is being closed. New York City faces a revenue shortfall of $150 million, cost rises of $280 million and a projected gross deficit this year of $430 million in a total budget of $11.1 billion; layoffs of 1,510 employees are planned initially, with more to come. Atlanta Mayor Maynard Jackson complains: "There may not be enough money in the city budget to fix the potholes in the streets."

HEALTH. Columbia Presbyterian Medical Center in New York City, the nation's largest complex of voluntary (private, nonprofit) hospitals, expects to be broke by year's end, a victim of rising costs, which produced a deficit of $5.6 million in 1973, up from $2.4 million in 1972. Pain in the pocketbook is causing patients of private physicians to put off deferrable care like plastic surgery and to postpone paying for what treatment they do get. Not surprisingly, the Doctors P Business Bureau of Southern California, which specializes in "ethical collections," is doing a booming business. As for emotionally troubled patients, Los Angeles Psychiatrist Barbara Biggs asserts:

"People are tense and want to talk about it. But they have to economize, so they cut out their therapy and get more tense."

SHOW BUSINESS. Symphony orchestras, opera houses and dance companies have been financially strapped in the best of times; now many are struggling for survival. Washington's National Ballet halted operations last summer. Directors of New York's Metropolitan Opera elevated Anthony A. Bliss over General Manager Schuyler G. Chapin to the new post of executive director. Bliss's mission: to restore economic health to the Met, whose deficit is expected to be $9 million this year. On the pop scene, attendance at rock concerts promoted by Howard Stein Enterprises has fallen 25% to 40% below that of a year ago. Elton John is one of the few who still sing to S.R.O.

crowds; Stevie Wonder failed to pack houses on his most recent tour, and John Denver filled only about half the 14,000 seats at the University of Tennessee's auditorium.

Sales of record albums and sheet music are holding firm, however. The Broadway theater is prospering: at mid-November, box office receipts for 1974 totaled $20.9 million, up from $17.2 million the year before. And movies offering escapist fare, like Earthquake and Airport 1975, are pulling in money as they have not done since the advent of television. Variety projects 1974 receipts of $1.65 billion, a shade below the 1946 record of $1.69 billion. Says Jack Valenti, head of the Motion Picture Association of America: "When people are anxious and fearful, they long for the dark comfort of the movie where the 65-ft. screen offers escape."

RELIGION. Some Protestant denominations--including the two largest, the Southern Baptist Convention and the United Methodist Church--are increasing their collections a shade faster than inflation cheapens the value of the dollars put in plates. But over all, the National Council of Churches reported in mid-November, the income of 41 Protestant denominations with 46 million members rose 7.7% in 1973 while the buying power of those dollars dropped 9.6%; the gap between collections and inflation will probably widen this year. The Lutheran Church in America, troubled by high interest rates on mortgage loans, has imposed a moratorium on purchasing sites and building new churches. Despite a large rise in costs, the Billy Graham Evangelistic Association will take in some $20 million this year, just even with 1973. It may have to curtail activities in 1975.

Roman Catholic congregations have the economic advantage of clerical celibacy, but parish costs--heat, light, printing--are soaring. The Union of American Hebrew Congregations glumly reports that costs in some cases have risen four to five times as fast as synagogue dues over the past several years. But response to appeals for higher dues during the High Holy Days has almost closed the gap.

SPORTS. Investors in the new World Football League, World Hockey Association and World Team Tennis franchises are drowning in red ink. "It's hard to get people to back up struggling franchises now," says Boston Sports Attorney Bob Woolf, and TV networks no longer bail out new leagues with-fat broadcast contracts. Even long-established leagues are suffering: a majority of the National Basketball Association's 18 teams are losing money. Once unobtainable, tickets to New York Knicks games against N.B.A. opponents are suddenly easier to get now that inflation has driven Madison Square Garden ticket prices as high as $10.50 each.

Amateur athletics are feeling the pinch too. The University of Vermont, citing soaring costs, has announced that it plans to drop its football program.

Participant, as opposed to spectator, sports have yet to feel any real squeeze. Sales of tennis rackets, balls and clothes are still booming, and ski lodges in Utah and Colorado are booked solid for the coming season.

United California Bank Economist Ray Jallow explains: "Consumers postponing purchases of durable goods have more cash to spend on leisure."

SCIENCE. Even though there have been increased federal allocations for such projects as cancer research, the breeder reactor and the space shuttle, total spending for research and development has barely been enough to keep pace with inflation. This year's total R. and D. budget of $17.9 billion represents a hike of about 5% over last year but a reduction of purchasing power because of inflation. Still, the job picture for scientists and engineers could remain fairly stable and perhaps even improve.

Reason: the Administration is seeking a whopping 10% increase for R. and D.

in fiscal 1975. But it is also insisting that scientific research be geared to more immediate needs--coal gasification and geothermal power, for example--as against pure research.

EDUCATION. As stock values have plummeted, the income from endowment funds of many private colleges and universities has slipped badly. At the same time, costs have risen sharply, especially those of fuel and educational supplies. The result: soaring tuitions. Princeton is now at $3,500, up from last year's $3,200; Cornell, Columbia and Amherst all hover in the $3,300-plus range. The University of Rochester, beneficiary of huge chunks of Xerox and Eastman Kodak stock (down 55% to 65% from 1973 peaks), has seen its endowment wither to $300 million from $400 million, its tuition rise to $3,275 from $2,925. Among elementary and secondary schools, austerity prevails. In an effort to trim $6 million from expenditures, Atlanta authorities are considering selling unused school property, freezing employment, abolishing overtime and eliminating some summer school. Around the country, there are far more teachers than jobs; 107,000 teacher-graduates could not find academic posts last year.

PUBLISHING. Newspaper and magazine advertising is slightly ahead of 1973, but salesmen are pessimistic about 1975: automobile advertising, for example, is off 16% from last year. Big-city papers dependent on national advertising are hurting: the New York Times's linage has been behind 1973 every month this year. Some publications have instituted hiring freezes, and the St. Petersburg Times will chop in half a traditional quarterly cost-of-living pay bonus for employees. Magazines reported on the block--Redbook, Woman's Day --remain unsold, and publishers like Playboy Enterprises are holding off on major new magazine ventures.

Nearly all book publishers are planning deep cutbacks in the number of titles that they bring out, although the effects will not be noticed until 1976 because of current contracts. Rich, commercially proven authors will get richer, but the first works of young talent will go begging. Prices soar: James Michener's bestselling Centennial has been boosted by Random House from $10.95 to $12.50.

THE NUCLEAR FAMILY. Already battered by the sexual, social and moral revolutions of recent years, the nuclear family seems destined for more stress as the economy weakens. The safety valves --going on vacations, sending children to camp, even hiring babysitters--are becoming too expensive for many middle income Americans and almost impossible for the swelling ranks of the unemployed. Paradoxically, an increase in marital stability may result--though at a price. Solid marriages should hold up, say psychologists, as families band together to combat adversity, and bad marriages will tend to last too. Reason:

divorce is too expensive. One Manhattan couple who could not afford a legal separation devised a cheap interim solution: a sheet suspended from the ceiling divides their apartment into his and hers li ving quarters.

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