Danger Signals All Around

A Besieged Carter awaits Begin's postponed U.S. visit

The terrorist slaughter in Israel is bound to have a psychological impact on the talks between Jimmy Carter and Menachem Begin when the Israeli Premier finally makes his postponed trip to Washington, his third visit to the U.S. On the day after the slaughter, for example, Begin made it clear that his attitude toward the return of the occupied West Bank of the Jordan River had, if possible, hardened even further. A Palestinian state there, he declared, "would be a mortal danger to our people and to our country." Moreover, the question arose of just what effect the Sabbath massacre would have on world and U.S. attitudes toward Israel's bargaining stance.

For all its horror, the massacre was just one reminder of the intractable realities facing the Carter Administration in its efforts to keep the Middle East peace momentum alive. Even before it occurred, the capital fairly reverberated last week with danger signals from several interested parties.

One of those, obviously, was Jimmy Carter himself. Though Begin was coming at his invitation, the President made clear in advance that their meeting would be all business. At his midweek press conference, Carter spoke bluntly of the new interpretation that Begin has been giving U.N. Resolution 242, which calls for Israeli withdrawal from the occupied Arab territories. Any attempt to sidestep the resolution, he said, would be "a very serious blow to the prospects of peace."

For his part, the President got some forceful reminders of the fight that he is facing over his proposal to link a sale of warplanes to Israel with similar sales to Egypt and Saudi Arabia--a plan that disturbs U.S. Jewish groups. Their main concern is the 60 advanced F-15 fighterbombers intended for the Saudis. In hopes of getting both the Saudi and the Egyptian sales past Congress, the White House has included them in a package deal with the planes for Israel. But last week, as Israeli Defense Minister Ezer Weizman was in Washington for talks on a big new Israeli arms request, the President received a letter signed by 21 of the 37 members of the House International Relations Committee. It urged him to reconsider his determination to keep the plane package all wrapped together. Earlier, opponents of the plane deal had gained some unexpected ammunition when the White House's liaison man with the Jewish community, Mark Siegel, 31, resigned. In a letter to the President, he explained that he had been "deeply troubled" by certain aspects of Administration policy, especially the sale of the planes to the Arabs.

At the same time, U.S. Jewish leaders are becoming more vocal about their misgivings. In a meeting with Carter aides last week, Rabbi Alexander M. Schindler, chairman of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations, warned that if U.S. Jews believed that the White House was building pressure on Begin, "it will unite them." Schindler says bluntly that, having supported the President in the past, U.S. Jews now have "a big question mark on Carter." Siegel's resignation, he adds, will increase their concern that "something is not right in American policy."

Before the terrorist attack, Begin had been having domestic problems of his own, stemming largely from the very issue that has most upset Carter: the Israeli settlements policy. As he arrived in Washington, Defense Minister Weizman got word that Agriculture Minister Ariel Sharon had ordered work started on two new settlements on the occupied West Bank of the Jordan River in defiance of Weizman's order that they be stopped. In a heated call to Jerusalem, Weizman pleaded with Begin to halt work on the settlements until after the Premier's own Washington trip. "If only one tractor moves, I will fly back tomorrow and you can have my resignation the next day," he said. Begin agreed--but became enraged when the story was leaked to the press.

At the very least, the episode suggested that Jerusalem's conduct of the peace negotiations had raised as much doubt within the Begin government as among the prominent Israelis who have begun to criticize it. The latest indication of Begin's scant willingness to make the kind of concessions that a peace agreement will require was his insistence that U.N. Resolution 242's requirement for Israeli withdrawal does not include the West Bank --a position at variance with that held by every Israeli government since the resolution was passed in 1967.

Many Israelis, who have long suspected that their Premier does not have the vision to grasp the opening provided by Sadat's visit to Jerusalem, saw Begin's interpretation of Resolution 242 as yet another stratagem to hold on to all of the West Bank--even if it meant abandoning the peace talks. The criticism did not yet threaten Begin's position as Premier, and it could well be muted in the wake of last week's atrocity. But much now depends on his talks in Washington. Should the Israelis conclude that Begin's intransigence was to blame for the failure of the peace process and a worsening relationship with the U.S., his government could still be in trouble.

The Administration has wanted to have Begin come to Washington ever since Sadat's visit in February. Officials are convinced that Begin wants peace but does not realize how close the process is to collapse. At his press conference, Carter said he had "no intention" of pressing Begin to make additional concessions. His main purpose, he said, would be to convey Egypt's latest negotiating position to the Israeli Premier and attempt to get direct Israeli-Egyptian talks resumed. He will advance Sadat's argument that the Egyptian President needs some indication of movement on the West Bank and Resolution 242 before talks can proceed. Specifically, the U.S. would like to see the Israelis put a moratorium on any new settlements.

The Egyptians will be watching to see just how much leverage Carter has with Begin, especially in the face of all the activity by the Israel lobby against the President's plane-sale proposal. Carter insists that he is not "discouraged" about the peace process--yet. Says he: "We are going to stick with it even if it takes a lot of time and much abuse.''

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