The Shah vs. the Shi'ites

Conservative Muslims are joining students in attacking his reign

Oil-rich Iranians can afford homes abroad, Swiss bank accounts and a seemingly endless supply of imported goods. But the big question now facing the country as a whole is how much political freedom will it decide it can afford.

After 25 years of autocratic and often oppressive rule, during which he sought to make his feudal nation a modern society, Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi began taking tentative steps toward political liberalization in 1976. He reined in Iran's notorious security police agency, SAVAK, eased censorship, and encouraged more open political debate. The reforms stilled some criticism by the country's intellectuals and student dissidents. But the changes also gave new life to opponents of the regime who now pose one of the gravest threats to the Shah's rule in the past 15 years. This year at least 40 people have been killed in several cities in a series of riots by the conservative Shi'ite Muslims,* Iran's main religious sect.

Discontent in Iran has periodically erupted among students, fomented by what the regime says are "Islamic Marxists," who want to overthrow the Shah. In addition, his rule is challenged by a group called the Unity of National Front Forces, a revived remnant of the old National Front of the late leftist Premier Mohammed Mossadegh, who was ousted after a showdown with the Shah in 1953. But the main thrust of the present opposition comes from the Shi'ite mullahs, religious leaders who are, in a sense, priests and theologians of Islam. Led by bearded, bespectacled Ayatullah Shariet-madari, 81, a kindly scholar honored through the Shi'ite world for his learning, the mullahs want Iran to be governed by Islamic law, as are Saudi Arabia and Libya. The mullahs' differences with the Shah date back to 1963, when they were divested of vast religious endowments as part of the "white revolution," the Shah's land-reform program. In addition to objecting to the lack of civil liberties, Shar-ietmadari and his colleagues want the Shah to enforce an old constitutional provision that would allow five mullahs to sit as a watchdog committee to see that no laws passed by parliament violate the precepts of the Koran.

The current troubles began early this year when police killed nine people during a demonstration in the mullahs' holy city of Qum (pop. 300,000), a traditional center of Shi'ite learning located 75 miles south of Tehran. After observing the traditional 40-day Muslim mourning period for the victims, demonstrators took to the streets. Again, several people were killed. On May 10, during observances for the death of Fatima, daughter of the Prophet Mohammed, paratroopers entered the Qum headquarters of Shi'ite Leader Sharietmadari, which is considered a religious sanctuary. A theological student was shot and killed.

The incident inflamed Shi'ite feelings as never before. In an interview last week in his spartan house in Qum, Sharietmadari told TIME Correspondent Wilton Wynn: "In the eyes of the nation, this incident is enough to cause a revolution in Iran. [The authorities] stopped cables being sent to me, but still the people came to me asking for the order to make a revolution. I advised them to remain quiet. But an attack on a Shi'ite leader will never be forgotten by the people." The roots of the recent trouble, charged Sharietmadari, lay in "many illegal actions in the past, such as torture, censorship of writings, the behavior of civil servants who encourage bribery." He demanded full application of constitutional rights, including free elections.

Few believe that the Shah is in any danger of being overthrown. Iran's monarch still has the machinery of power firmly in his hands. The Shah also has a broad base of popular support, particularly in the army and among farmers and a newly created industrial working class, who have benefited from land reforms and measures giving workers 20% of the profits of companies employing them and allowing them to buy up to 49% of the company's shares.

Although no one seriously thinks that the Shah, who is 58, is about to allow full political freedom, he apparently believes that some liberalization is necessary if the country is to remain stable through any period of succession. (Crown Prince Reza, who becomes 18 this year, is next in line to rule.) Last August, faced with discontent over the skyrocketing cost of living and government-ordered power cutbacks that caused several hundred million dollars in industrial losses, the Shah named Jamshid Amuzegar, 54, the country's tough oil and energy negotiator, as Premier. Amuzegar took swift action against inflation (down from 31% last August to 15% today). He also curbed public spending and real estate speculation, decentralized government offices and acted to bring down the cost of housing. Claiming that subversive elements were using religious organizations as a cover, Amuzegar said last week that the government intended to "act strongly" against those who misuse freedom. At the same time, Amuzegar said, his government was engaged in an effort to win over the mullahs. One concession: banning pornographic films.

Iran's future stability is of great importance to the West. Bordered by the Soviet Union to the north, Soviet-armed Iraq to the west and a new leftist regime in Afghanistan to the east, Iran is the major pro-Western military power in the Persian Gulf region. Although down 3% last year, Iran's oil income still brings the country about $22 billion a year. The Shah's problem is to see that this treasure is channeled into enough social benefits to defuse public discontent, thus allowing political reforms to be carried out in a relatively tranquil atmosphere.

* The Shi'ite branch of Islam split off from the main Sunni branch during the 7th century; it now predominates in Iran and much of Iraq and Lebanon.

This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so viewer discretion is required.