Papal Oddsmaking

A bold American effort to rate the "candidates"

One hundred sixteen Roman Catholic Cardinals round the world will get an unusual item in their mail this week: a 300-page book containing "dossiers" on all 116, who some day will enter a conclave and, from among their ranks, elect the next Pope. The book, The Inner Elite: Dossiers of Papal Candidates ($12.95), is but the beginning. The publisher, Sheed Andrews & McMeel, is also putting out a cheeky monthly newsletter, Conclave Confidential, which for $30 a year offers the latest scuttlebutt on papal "candidates" and Vatican politicking. Next to come: computerized game plans on ways the conclave might develop.

All this is a bold (some would say rash) American-based program to open up the election process, which is wreathed in secrecy. If Popes were Presidents, of course, such publications would be routine. One does not "run" for Pope, however, and a Cardinal who even appears to do so may harm his prospects.

Besides, the time of election depends not on the calendar but on the death of the frail incumbent, Pope Paul, 80. Inevitably, such speculation seems a bit ghoulish.

James Andrews, chairman of Sheed, dreamed up the project two years ago and put the dossier book in the capable hands of Author Gary MacEoin, who edited reports from 100 tipsters in many nations.

The related newsletter runs material mainly from three anonymous writers in Rome and three in the U.S. Both the book and the newsletter are sponsored by 18 Catholics who make up a Committee for the Responsible Election of the Pope, chaired by Andrews and Philip Scharper, top editor at the Maryknoll Fathers' Orbis Books.

The Sheed dossiers combine straight biographical facts with opinionated, often blunt assessments. And some spice. Pericle Felici, 66, the "ruthless" front-running candidate on the right, is said to use a telephoto lens to monitor Pope Paul's movements about his palace. Another Curia Cardinal, Giuseppe Maria Sensi, is said to be "a lover of fast cars" who currently zips about in a red BMW 3000. In Guatemala, Mario Casariego has been so closely identified with the regime that his automobile is always accompanied by "a radio patrol and two armed motorcycle guards."

The dossiers have a none-too-subtle tilt to the left, which results in putdowns of most of the U.S. Cardinals. John Carberry of St. Louis is "threatened by a world he does not understand." Terence Cooke of New York is "untouched by theology or other theoretical influences." John Krol of Philadelphia and the Vatican's John Wright are both "princely" and "authoritarian." The ideological bias flaws judgment in some instances. It is dubious whether Belgium's Leo Jozef Suenens was the non-Italian "front runner in the early 1970s" or that another liberal, Holland's Bernard Alfrink, will be "one of the most influential" conclave members.

The book's introductory material points out that non-Europeans have a voting majority for the first time since the College of Cardinals acquired exclusive control of papal elections eight centuries ago. The Italian bloc now numbers only 26 out of the 116 electors. By the book's judgments, the conclave would have 50 conservatives, 35 progressives and 31 Cardinals with moderate, mixed or unclear positions.

Among non-Italian candidates, the book thinks the "obvious front runner" is Eduardo Pironio, a liberal-minded Argentine in the Vatican Curia, though at 57 he is probably too young to be elected in the next several years. Other non-Italian possibilities cited are Holland's Johannes Willebrands, 68 ("an interesting combination of Dutch progressivism" and Curial "caution"), and Austria's Franz Koenig, 72 (a "progressive" who has lately been leaning to the right).

But despite the geography of the conclave, the authors, like most observers, think it "unlikely" that the next Pope will be non-Italian.

Of the Italians, they rate most likely to succeed two officials of the Vatican Curia:

Sebastiano Baggio, 65 ("very political-minded, very shrewd and very smooth"), and at higher odds, Sergio Pignedoli, 68 ("more open and positive" than his friend Pope Paul). A strong contender a few years hence is Florence's Giovanni Benelli, now only 57, who is assessed as "quite inadequate" to deal with today's culture.

How will ranking churchmen react?

Publisher Andrews thinks "the initial response will be that this is outrageous, but information is a very powerful thing, and church leaders are bound to be affected by it." However, four Cardinals in the Vatican Curia told TIME that such dossiers would never influence a conclave, and two of them insisted that they would discard them unread. Said one: "What could they tell me about a fellow Cardinal that I don't already know? And what do these people know about the problems and needs of the church?" Shrugs Committee Co-Chairman Scharper: "We are casting bread upon the waters, and it may come back wet bread."

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