A Right Start That Could Go Wrong

Diplomacy and patience will still be needed

It was widely hailed as a victory for patient U.S. diplomacy. After years of hostility, both South Africa and the militant South West African People's Organization (SWAPO) agreed to let the United Nations oversee the transition to independence of Namibia (South West Africa). But as events unfolded in the Venezuela-sized, mineral-rich territory last week, it became clear that much more patience and diplomacy will be needed, before South Africa relinquishes control over the land It has ruled since 1919 under an international mandate, that the U.N. revoked in 1966. As a U.S. official warned last week: "Things could always go wrong."

The U.N. effort is most likely to founder over the future of Walvis Bay, Namibia's principal port (see box). Pretoria wants to trade the harbor for a cooperative attitude from the new Namibian regime after it takes power. SWAPO insists that Walvis Bay, through which 90% of the territory's international trade passes, must become part of Namibia now.

The transition plan could also go astray simply because of the deep distrust the South Africans have for the U.N. Last week the organization's newly appointed special representative, Martti Ahtisaari, arrived in the territorial capital of Windhoek with the first contingent of a U.N. supervisory force that may eventually grow to 5,000 troops and 1,000 civilians. Ahtisaari, a former Finnish Ambassador to Tanzania, will meet with stonewalling cynicism from whites, who fully expect him to favor the guerrillas in any disagreement. One such skeptic is Brian O'Linn, Secretary-General of the Namibia National Front, a newly formed multiracial attempt to steer between SWAPO and its major opponent, the South African-backed Democratic Turnhalle Alliance. Says O'Linn, "the deep suspicion South Africans have about the U.N. can only be alleviated. I doubt if it will ever be resolved."

Ahtisaari faces more than psychological roadblocks. By the end of August he is supposed to submit to U.N. Secretary-General Kurt Waldheim a plan for a truce between the guerrillas and South African troops, as well as a blueprint for the election of a constituent assembly that will draft a constitution for independent Namibia. Pretoria has warned that it may reject any recommendation Ahtisaari comes up with. Meanwhile both sides have adopted a "you first" attitude that will make a cease-fire difficult to achieve. As guerrillas under his command blew up a vital water line in northern Namibia, SWAPO Leader Sam Nujoma declared that "prospects for free, fair and democratic elections are increasingly doubtful, if not untenable." Until South Africa confines its 10,000 or so Namibian troops to then-bases, said Nujoma, he will not order his guerrillas to lay down their arms. The South Africans retorted that there could be no confinement or withdrawal until a cease-fire had been arranged.

Under the peace plan, both the South Africans and SWAPO would have to release all their Namibian political prisoners. South Africa has been holding about 400 nationalists in its jails, and some 700 SWAPO dissidents, held by Tanzania and Zambia as a favor to Nujoma, have recently been set free. In both groups, there are men who pose serious threats to the inarticulate and unpredictable Nujoma, 49, who has failed to excite either Western or African leaders. Among them: Andreas Shipanga, a former SWAPO Information Officer released from a Tanzanian prison, who formed the SWAPO Democrats in opposition to Nujoma last month, and Herman Toivo Ya Toivo, one of SWAPO's founders, who has been in the South African maximum security prison on Robben Island for the past ten years. Toivo, popular with the Ovambo tribesmen who constitute the bulk of SWAPO membership; is no friend of Nujoma's. "His big problem is that he is no longer a major force within the country," says Shipanga. "He has been too long on the outside and too reluctant to go back except at the end of a gun. He's afraid now of fighting an election because he knows he will lose."

That pessimistic appraisal of Nujoma's prospects is shared by some U.S. diplomats, who believe that fast-moving developments have "outstripped" the guerrilla leader's capacity to deal with them. Indeed, virtually every Namibian political group is now so ridden with factions that, in the words of a U.S. official, "you'd have to be a fool to predict the outcome" of any future election.

Nevertheless, an air of cautious optimism prevailed in Washington last week. Buoyed by the recent agreement between Zaire and Angola to re-establish formal relations and cease their border fighting, U.S. officials are still hoping that a peaceful solution in Namibia could have some direct influence in pointing the way to a resolution of the Rhodesian crisis. "The situation is just about as good as could be expected," a State Department specialist remarked last week. "In fact, we've made more progress than we thought possible 15 months ago." Those who favor an end to the strife in Namibia were hoping that progress would continue. -

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