Second Thoughts--and Chances

The Shah plots a careful course to keep the peace

Politics and nature combined to batter Iran cruelly last week. In a mountainous farm region in eastern Iran, the strongest earthquake recorded anywhere in 1978 reduced villages to what one survivor called "a mound of rubble, bent iron beams and dirt." At least 9,000 were feared dead in the quake, which measured 7.7 on the Richter scale and was centered near the town of Tabas.

Even before the quake struck, mourners were a common sight as families buried the victims killed two weeks ago during protests against the regime of Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi. Martial law prevailed, and troops and tanks patrolled the streets of Tehran and eleven other cities to enforce a rigid 10 p.m.-to-5 a.m. curfew. At least eight curfew violators were shot dead for failing to heed orders to stop. Six soldiers and a civilian died in a fire fight in Tabriz after saboteurs attacked their patrol. Security was tightened around the offices and refineries of the giant National Iranian Oil Company to prevent sabotage, but so far there was no open challenge by radical elements to the government's get-tough action.

The Shah, facing the gravest threat to his throne in a quarter of a century, moved swiftly to quell the opposition that has been building against his regime over the past nine months. His policy was twofold: 1) to punish corrupt officials and subversives and 2) to demonstrate convincingly that Tehran's springtime of political liberalization, begun only a month ago, would continue.

In the crackdown on corruption, police arrested a dozen businessmen and former top government officials suspected of embezzlement, land frauds and misappropriations of government funds. The widespread incidence of such corruption was one of the major complaints of opponents of the regime--most notably the religious mullahs (leaders) of the Shi'ite Muslim sect. Among those arrested were three former Cabinet ministers (agriculture, trade and health), and Hojabr Yadzani, who is one of Iran's richest businessmen. A thousand other businessmen were advised that they would not be allowed to leave the country. Said an Iranian banker: "It looks ike the crash of the crooks."

At the same time, more than 300 poitical prisoners, most of them openly Marxist, were released from jail. Said one prisoner on his release: "They let us out fast so they'd have room for all the fat cats." Several hundred other political dissidents, including the head of the Iranian Committee for Human Rights and his deputy and two mullahs--one with a bank account of $1.5 million--were charged with seeking to overthrow the Shah.

In a speech to the lower house of parliament, the Shah's new Premier, Jaafar Sharif-Emami, conceded that Iran was "paying a price" for the manner in which its economic programs had been conducted. The Premier promised that the government's liberalization program, under which no fewer than 40 political parties have formed, would result in new "political freedoms and social justice." The government promised to allow the parties time to organize and campaign before next June's promised elections.

The Premier also easily won a vote of confidence on the Shah's program of modernization and reforms, but not before the tiny, vocal parliamentary opposition turned the session into a freewheeling discussion of grievances. In an impassioned speech, Ali Asghar Mazhari an independent deputy, evoked cheers and tears with a stinging--and what short time ago would have been unthinkable--rebuke to the Shah. "While the majority of the people may have been silent this did not mean they were stupid and did not know what was going on," said Mazhari. "They knew. And they will continue to protest until you begin to respect them for their true worth and until the rule of law prevails. They do not want the most expensive life on the face of the earth. They want justice."

In a new mood of humility, the Shah launched a campaign of reconciliation with his religious opponents. He brought home his ambassador to the U.S., Ardeshir Zahedi, to open a dialogue with dissident mullahs. Sharif-Emami was expected to call this week on Ayatullah Sharietmadari, 76, the religious teacher who is regarded as the most powerful spokesman for the Shi'ite opposition. In addition, Ayatullah Khomeini, 80, a popular mullah exiled in Iraq since 1963, might be permitted to return home if he disavows the overthrow of the Shah.

Faced with the failure of his technocrats, the Shah sought the advice of some of the country's leading intellectuals, scholars and sociologists. They reminded him that for an Islamic nation like Iran, people must feel that justice has been served. The Shah also feels that martial law, though technically imposed for six months, should end as soon as possible. If not, warned an intellectual, many dissidents might be driven underground and try to "keep things blowing sky high."

Even as controversy raged over how many died the week before in protests (the official figure is 98, but there is a widespread belief that at least several hundred were killed, and some claim as many as 2,000), families of the victims gathered at gravesides, where soldiers kept watch. After the services, the mourners dispersed in small groups of three, as ordered. "They can pray, they can bury, but they can't demonstrate," said a colonel.

For Iranian students abroad, there were no such restrictions. Demonstrators in Rome and London fasted to protest the Shah's policies, while masked protesters in Paris, San Francisco, New York City, Los Angeles and in front of the White House in Washington took to the streets to bring what they called "the true nature of the Iranian people's uprising" to the world's attention. It will be some time before Iran's springtime is reality. qed

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