Buying Time

South Africa fends off a threat

For more than a decade, the United Nations has been trying to end South Africa's control over Namibia (South West Africa). For just as long, South Africa has tried to maintain its jurisdiction over the Venezuela-size territory that it has ruled since 1920 under a League of Nations mandate, which the U.N. lifted in 1966. In April, under prodding by the "Big Five" Western powers (the U.S., Britain, France, Canada and West Germany), the South Africans agreed to surrender sovereignty to a new Namibian government elected through U.N. -supervised voting.

Last month, however, retiring South African Prime Minister John Vorster abruptly reneged on the deal. In a move plainly calculated to guarantee a pro-South African regime in Namibia, Vorster announced that Pretoria would forge ahead with an "internal settlement." Last week, top foreign-policy makers of the Big Five, headed by Secretary of State Cyrus Vance, called on Vorster's hard-lining successor, Pieter W. Botha, with a harsh message: either go along with the West's independence plan or face U.N.-imposed* economic sanctions.

That stern warning was delivered in sweetly reasonable tones. To avoid ruffling Botha, the U.S. delegation did not include U.N. Ambassador Andrew Young, who is thoroughly detested by South Africa's white leaders. Vance delivered a personal message from Jimmy Carter implying that the U.S. would tone down its harsh criticisms of South Africa's apartheid policy if Botha accepted the U.N. plan. Further underscoring the West's flexibility, the Big Five spokesmen agreed to a number of South African demands: a renegotiation of the size of the U.N. peace-keeping force that is to move into Namibia, and a continued South African monopoly on law enforcement. Botha declared that he "highly valued" Carter's message, but he also refused to back away from his plan for elections.

Pretoria's goal is to undercut the South West African People's Organization (SWAPO)--which has waged a guerrilla war against South Africa for the past twelve years--by staging elections in December, well before the U.N. force could be in place. Since SWAPO refuses to participate in such an election, the biracial Democratic Turnalle Alliance, which South Africa created and still dominates, would be virtually assured of victory. Third World nations regard such a voting arrangement as worthless--a view increasingly shared in the West. "You don't try to rig an election or rush it," said British Foreign Secretary David Owen. Botha's angry reply, reportedly delivered in a tense negotiating session: "Don't you try to lecture me about democracy."

When the mission ended, South Africa had at least bought some time for itself. Backing away from earlier threats that they would not oppose economic sanctions, the Big Five envoys now agreed that they would veto any such proposal put to the U.N. Security Council until Pretoria's internal settlement is proved beyond doubt to be a sham. The Western powers hope eventually to persuade South Africa to accept a U.N.-supervised vote that the Third World countries could also consider legitimate. But, as one Western diplomat ruefully admitted as he left Pretoria last week: "The talks have left us with one hell of a selling job."

* In 1977, the U.N. Security Council imposed a mandatory embargo on arms shipments to South Africa that is still in effect.

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