Survival

It was hardly an auspicious 59th birthday last week for the Shah of Iran. Under mounting opposition from critics of his regime, the Shah has been forced into a radical reassessment of his priorities. In recent weeks, strikes by workers angered over the country's inflation rate (currently 50%) have paralyzed the nationalized oil refineries, postal service, airline, and copper and steel industries. The nation's balance of payments deficit exceeds $5.5 billion. To pay for an across-the-board wage increase for at least 1 million workers, and for subsidized housing and other social projects, the Shah has canceled $7 billion worth of American and European military orders, including the controversial U.S. AWAC airborne warning system. He is also scrapping plans to build 20 nuclear plants, a modern railroad and a subway system for Tehran.

Despite such spartan measures, there is increasing doubt among both knowledgeable Iranians and Western diplomats that the Shah will be able to survive as ruler of the 57-year-old Pahlavi dynasty. In recent days. 64 members of the royal family, including the Shah's brothers and sisters and in-laws, have fled the country.

On the eve of his birthday, the Shah released 1,451 prisoners, including 1,126 political detainees. Still, demonstrations and rioting continued; 1,200 people, by conservative estimates, have died in clashes with military troops since August. The Shah remains committed to political reforms that will lead to parliamentary elections next June. He has also indicated a willingness to give up some of his absolute powers in favor of a constitutional monarchy. Nonetheless, he now privately admits that if the turmoil continues, he may be forced to leave the country.

The question of the Shah's future role is one on which his opponents are divided. Many people in Iran would like to see him remain as a figurehead but removed from politics; others insist that his rule must end. One of the most vigorous advocates of the Shah's removal is Ayatullah Khomeini, the 76-year-old mullah who is now the undisputed spiritual and political leader of Iran's 32 million Shi'ite Muslims, who comprise 93% of the population. A longtime opponent of the Shah, Khomeini was exiled in 1963 following violent demonstrations against the Shah's land reforms. Two weeks ago, he was expelled from Iraq, where he had kept his headquarters and served as a catalyst to the opposition against the Shah. He is now temporarily residing in France.

A specialist in Islamic philosophy and law, Khomeini lives the typically ascetic life of a mullah and hardly looks like a political leader who could galvanize a nation. Yet no less a personage than Ardeshir Zahedi, Iranian Ambassador to the U.S., tried to pay a call on Khomeini in France. The reported purpose of the visit was to persuade Khomeini to return to Iran and help defuse the crisis. But Khomeini refused to see the ambassador. He will not return to Iran, he insists, until the Shah's rule has ended. Last week TIME Correspondent Dean Brelis interviewed Khomeini at a guarded farmhouse in Pontchartrain. Excerpts from the interview:

On the present turmoil in Iran: [It] is a struggle against a cruel oppression. The people of Iran have no faith in the new Premier, [Jaafar] Sharif-Emami. He and his Cabinet are unable to solve Iran's problems. [But] victory is near, and the Shah and his entire system will be overthrown.

On infiltration of his movement by leftists: Ours is a movement of the entire Iranian nation. It is an honest struggle with Islamic motivation. It obeys God and his laws. It is the Shah who, through his paid agents, deliberately tries to tell the world that our struggle is leftist.

On U.S. and Soviet influence in Iran: The Shah has given oil to America; natural gas to the Soviet Union; land, forests and some oil to England and other countries. We want all these foreign influences and pressures out of our country.

On changing to a constitutional monarchy: Everything represented by the Shah and his system must disappear from Iranian life. I am not the Shah's enemy. Our struggle is to convince him that his authority is finished. Already the pressure is cutting into his throat.

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