Relative Calm

But the test is yet to come

Despite sporadic clashes between protesters and police, Iran showed few signs last week of the turmoil that has engulfed it for the past two months. Oil production was almost back to normal, following a three-week walkout by workers at the country's refineries and rigs. A wildcat strike by power workers caused blackouts in the capital of Tehran, but after soldiers took over the power stations the workers returned to their jobs.

There were fears, however, that the relative calm might merely be a brief hiatus before a new round of violence aimed at driving the Shah from his throne. The next crucial test will come during the Islamic month of Muharram. The Shi'ite observance of this month culminates on Dec. 11, with the commemoration of the martyrdom of Imam Husain, grandson of Muhammad. It is a time when all Shi'ites mourn for their dead, and emotions often reach a feverish pitch.

From his sanctuary in France, Ayatullah Khomeini, the exiled leader of Iran's Shi'ite Muslims, fueled those emotions by calling on his supporters to mount demonstrations "to denounce the crimes of the Shah." General Gholam Reza Azhari, Premier of the new military government, assured Iranians that they would be allowed to observe the holiday as usual so long as the demonstrations did not become political.

The Shah last week repeated his pledge to hold free elections in the near future and announced the release of another 477 political prisoners; in the past three months, 1,903 have been freed. However, two members of the International League for Human Rights, an independent organization affiliated with the United Nations, completed a fact-finding mission to Iran and reported that thousands of political prisoners were still held in Iranian jails.

Among them were 700 who have been arrested since Nov. 6, when the military took over the country. Contrary to earlier government pledges, the fact finders said, prisoners were still subjected to psychological torture by SAVAK, Iran's secret police (though physical torture had apparently stopped).

Meanwhile, the Shah continued his efforts to form a coalition government that would take I over from the military once calm was restored. There " were hints of a compromise that would enable the Shah eventually to relinquish many of his powers, but the government was not yet prepared to publicize the plan.

Soviet Boss Leonid Brezhnev chose to become involved himself last week. In an unusual front-page Pravda statement, Brezhnev declared: "It should be clear that any interference, especially military interference, in the affairs of Iran, a state that borders directly on the Soviet Union, would be regarded by the U.S.S.R. as affecting the interests of its security." That warning, aimed directly at the U.S., startled and annoyed American officials. After a hasty Sunday meeting, Secretary of State Cyrus Vance issued a statement saying that "the U.S. does not intend to intervene in the internal affairs of any country." Then Vance added pointedly: "We expect other countries to conduct themselves in similar fashion and we note that the Soviet Union has said that it will not interfere in the affairs of Iran."

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