Still Sunny Jim

Though he is short of a parliamentary majority by five votes, Britain's Prime Minister James Callaghan has kept his Labor government in power since August by combining the boldness of a crap shooter with the cunning of a political confidence man. Even so, Callaghan constantly teeters on the edge of defeat. Last week he almost fell, surviving an unexpected vote of confidence only through a jerry-built majority of the moment.

The confidence vote came after Callaghan had lost two other votes in a debate on his anti-inflation policy--which galls the unions because it contains a lid on wages but not prices, and pains businessmen because it puts the burden on companies to enforce the wage standards. The first vote was on the issue of sanctions against companies that violate the 5% pay hike ceiling. Five left-wing Laborites deserted the government. As a result, Labor went down to a 285-279 defeat. That led to a vote on the government's entire pay policy, which Callaghan also lost, 285-283. "Speak up, speak up," yelled Tory backbenchers in the traditional demand for a vote of confidence. Callaghan retorted: "I shall speak up and my voice shall be heard throughout the country."

Callaghan was expected to win the confidence vote; had he lost, there would have had to be an immediate election. But just to make victory certain, Callaghan reminded Scottish and Welsh nationalists of the referendum promised for March on a proposal for increased local rule for Scotland and Wales. Similarly, the Ulster-men were reminded that the Prime Minister has pledged an increase in seats for them, from 12 to 17. That did the trick. Enough nationalists voted with Labor, enough unionists abstained, and Callaghan survived, 300-290.

Inevitably, however, came the question of how effective he can continue to be. Editorialized London's pro-Labor Daily Mirror on Page One: "Let the people vote. Mr. Callaghan has been left with out a weapon in his hand to fight the most important battle of our time, the battle against inflation." The Mirror demanded a general election before winter is out, but a more likely time for a vote is early spring, when the weather will be better. Said one of Callaghan's Cabinet colleagues last week: "I have circled April 5 on my calendar and I suspect that Jim has done the same."

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