Korea Pullout

New reasons for G.I.s to stay

Just back from a tour of East Asia, four Senators last week delivered an urgent message to Jimmy Carter over lunch in the Cabinet room. The delegation voiced grave concerns "about the nature and stability of the Korean military balance." Said the Senators: "The withdrawal of U.S. ground forces from the Republic of Korea should be discontinued."

For Carter, this was distressing advice. Shortly after his inauguration, he announced that he would bring home within five years all 32,000 U.S. ground combat troops in South Korea. (About 16,000 airmen and Army logistics troops would stay indefinitely.) Some 3,400 G.I.s departed in 1978, and 2,600 are scheduled to go this year.

The Senators, Democrats Sam Nunn of Georgia, Gary Hart of Colorado and John Glenn of Ohio and Republican William Cohen of Maine, told Carter that they are alarmed by a new U.S. intelligence appraisal revealing that North Korea is significantly more powerful than previously reported. The assessment places the size of Pyongyang's army at up to 600,000 men and 2,600 tanks, a boost of 25% over the last U.S. estimate. Against this, Seoul fields an army of 560,000 troops and 880 tanks. The South is at a 2-to-l disadvantage in tactical aircraft and trails 4 to 1 in warships.

U.S. Army analysts first suspected that their earlier assessment might be out of date last May, when the North began deploying more tanks than required for the ground units it was assumed to have. That led the analysts to look for other clues, using intercepted communications between North Korean units, satellite photographs and information from South Korean spies. Says Hart: "The intelligence effort is like a criminal case in which you start out by thinking that you have a minor traffic violation and end up with Mafia involvement."

The President assured congressional leaders last summer that he would adjust his policy "should circumstances affecting the balance [on the Korean peninsula] change significantly." One factor that could affect Carter's decision is whether North and South Korea resume the negotiations that stalled in August 1973. There were indications last week that the two sides might again start talking. Another factor is that keeping the G.I.s in South Korea might be popular. A poll last year by Potomac Associates, a Washington think tank, found that by 52% to 35%, Americans favored maintaining ground forces in South Korea. There also is considerable opposition to the pullout in Congress, where funds required for the withdrawal could be blocked. Warned Sam Nunn: "We haven't made any legislative threat, but I don't foreclose that possibility."

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