Jimmy's Odds

Jimmy Carter's re-election prospects have become a much discussed topic in the nation lately. When the subject came up at TIME'S Board of Economists meeting, the response could hardly have encouraged Carter partisans. All seven members present gave the President a less than 50-50 chance of reelection.

Republican Alan Greenspan figured that Carter stands at best a 50% chance of renomination and, if he passes that hurdle, only a 60-40 shot at beating the Republican candidate. Mathematically that would work out to a 30% chance of going all the way. Said Greenspan: "It almost doesn't matter who the Republicans put up. I think the next race is Carter against Carter."

Said Robert Nathan, adviser to high Democrats: "If the economy stays the way it is, I would give him only a 40-60 chance in the primaries." Nathan assayed the President's election chances, if nominated, at "maybe 51-49." Those odds would give Carter about two chances in ten for winning reelection.

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