A Frightening Clash in the Skies

At home and abroad, Assad faces some severe tests

Emblazoned with the star of David, U.S.-supplied F-15s streaked low over the Mediterranean last week, protecting other Israeli planes on a bombing run of suspected Palestinian positions near Sidon and Damour in southern Lebanon. When the Israelis spotted eight Syrian MiG-21s flying toward them in close formation, the F-15 pilots fired their missiles. In the brief but fiery battle, which was joined by Israeli Kfir jets, at least six of the Syrian jets plummeted to earth. The Israelis returned to their home bases unscathed.

It was the first aerial clash between Syria and Israel in five years, and it had frightening overtones; similar clashes preceded the start of the 1967 and 1973 Arab-Israeli wars. The U.S. expressed its "serious concern" to Jerusalem over the use of the sophisticated F-15s, which were given to Israel with the proviso that they be used for defensive purposes only. Premier Menachem Begin rejected the protest, arguing that the aerial attacks on suspected terrorist positions were "only done for the sake of legitimate national defense."

In fact, Israel is not merely retaliating against terrorist raids or bombings. Since the death of four Israelis during an April 22 Palestinian raid on the town of Nahariya, Israel has been conducting preemptive strikes into Lebanon. In Washington's view, the new policy risks a direct Israeli confrontation with the Syrians, whose more than 22,000 troops constitute the principal peace-keeping force in Lebanon. After the air battle, Syria reportedly issued orders for its MiGs to intercept all Israeli flights over Lebanon. In turn, Premier Begin told the Jewish Assembly: "Damascus should know that they can't interfere with our artillery and air force." If Israeli planes are shot down in Lebanon, he warned, Syria will pay the consequences.

The bitter exchanges between the two countries came at a time when Syria is facing serious internal problems. Last month, according to reports from Beirut, more than 50 cadets at a military academy in Aleppo were killed by armed members of the right-wing Muslim Brotherhood. The students, most of whom belonged to Syria's small but politically dominant Alawite sect, were gunned down following an academy lecture. Announcing the slayings a week later on Damascus radio, Syria's Interior Minister, Brigadier Adnan Dabbagh, accused the brotherhood of also carrying out a series of other political assassinations since 1975. He vowed that his government intended to "liquidate" the organization, which was formed in Egypt in 1928 for the purpose of imposing strict Islamic order on Muslim countries. Last week Syria announced that 15 members of the brotherhood had been executed for terrorist acts; all had been arrested prior to the Aleppo incident.

The Aleppo massacre, and the swift retribution against the Muslim Brotherhood that followed, were chilling reminders of the deep political and religious tensions that continue to plague Syria and now seem to threaten President Hafez Assad himself. By skillful manipulation of Syria's diverse religious, tribal and regional elements, he has given his country almost ten years of internal stability.

Nevertheless, there are growing signs that his tenure may be jeopardized by serious internal strains and by his own frail health, which may involve blood cancer.* The vast majority of Syrians are Sunni Muslims; Assad and most of his top officials are Alawites, who make up only 11% of the population. The Islamic revival that has swept through Iran has had its effect in Syria. Baffled by rapid change and denied the outlet of free political expression, Syria's youth has displayed a renewed interest in traditional religion; the new mood has served to strengthen the Sunni community. It has also drawn increased attention to corruption among Alawite military leaders, most notably Assad's brother Rifaat, whose responsibilities include Damascus' security forces.

Syria's foreign ventures have soured. Its seemingly endless intervention in Lebanon has demoralized the army. The operation reportedly costs Damascus about $1 million a day. In addition, lengthy negotiations to unify Syria with its often inimical neighbor Iraq have yet to bear fruit. Meanwhile Syria and the other rejectionist Arabs have been unable to prevent the Camp David accords from going into effect or to come up with any viable alternative.

Perhaps the most dangerous development has been growing unrest in the military, still Assad's power base. Alawites hold senior positions throughout the armed forces, and Assad himself is commander in chief of the air force, but most of the enlisted men are Sunni Muslims who increasingly resent domination by their officers. Israeli intelligence experts speculate that a revolutionary mood may have swept through Syrian armor and infantry units, touching off fears of a coup. After the execution of the 15 brotherhood members, all of whom were Sunni Muslims, Rifaat's tank units rolled into Damascus and took up key positions in the capital. About 300 to 500 religious and political leaders reportedly were arrested and some 50 army officers were relieved.

The prospect of Assad's downfall is a chilling thought for Washington. Although he has contributed virtually nothing to the current peace process in the Middle East, the Syrian President is still regarded as a moderate at heart. Chances are that his replacement would be someone amenable to the zealous wishes of the Muslim Brotherhood--most likely meaning stronger opposition to any negotiations with Israel and greater hostility to Egypt's lonely approach to peace.

* Another cancer victim in the Middle East is Israeli Foreign Minister Moshe Dayan. Last week doctors removed a malignant tumor from his large intestine.

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