Power or Pageantry?

Muzorewa's new regime raises doubts at home and abroad

Sporting a tribal headdress and wearing a leopard-skin cloak over a rainbow-hued tunic, the Prime Minister of Zimbabwe Rhodesia moved into his official residence two weeks ago. Accompanied by a ululating crowd of followers, Bishop Abel Muzorewa rode in an ox-drawn cart to the stately white mansion --renamed from Independence House to Dzimbahwe (House of Chiefs)--that for 15 years was occupied by Ian Douglas Smith. The scene raised unsettling questions about Muzorewa's month-old multiracial government: Is it really more than an African show masking the continuation of effective white power? Is there any substance behind the pageantry?

Within Zimbabwe Rhodesia, the answers have not been encouraging. This week Muzorewa embarks on a trip to Washington and London to seek international recognition for his regime. He is unlikely to get it, since he has so far failed to push for badly needed internal reforms for the country's 6 million blacks or to reduce the disproportionate share of power retained by the white minority under the new constitution. And although he offered the "hand of fellowship" to the Patriotic Front upon taking office last month, he seems as determined as Ian Smith ever was to crush the black nationalist guerrillas with military force.

Muzorewa's failure to develop a reform program has diminished support among his black countrymen. Said a disgruntled black in Salisbury last week: "The bishop is consistently honest in one respect. He hasn't promised anything because he can't deliver anything." The restiveness was reflected in the recent defection from Muzorewa's parliamentary party of seven M.P.s, led by Joseph Chikerema, who are seeking to form a rival bloc. The defections potentially reduce Muzorewa's parliamentary support to a minority of 44 seats in the 100-member assembly, meaning that the bishop's survival may depend on the votes of Smith's Rhodesian Front Party.

Muzorewa's hopes of winning prompt international recognition received a setback last week: sources close to Britain's Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher revealed that she has modified her earlier view that Britain should quickly lift economic sanctions against Zimbabwe Rhodesia. During a brief visit to Australia, Thatcher said that she expected the House of Commons would simply not renew the sanctions when they expire in November. She added: "The question of recognition is a slightly wider problem and could take just a little longer."

On her return to England, Whitehall sources say, Thatcher decided against recognizing Muzorewa's regime until the Zimbabwe Rhodesia constitution was amended to an extent that made it internationally acceptable. Specifically, that would include loosening the white grip on power and increased promotion for blacks in the armed forces and civil service, plus the departure of Ian Smith from the political arena. Thatcher's decision was based on a report by her special envoy to Africa, Lord Harlech, that Britain's recognition of Zimbabwe Rhodesia under the present circumstances would not be supported by a single African country--not even South Africa. In insisting on constitutional reform as a prerequisite to recognition, Thatcher was moving closer to the views of the Carter Administration.

Even if he moves to revise the constitution, Muzorewa's chances of survival are problematic. Any such move is certain to meet with strong resistance from Rhodesian whites, who still control the country's economic and military apparatus. Moreover, any constitutional changes will have to win the favor of black African nations, particularly the five so-called frontline states (Angola, Botswana, Mozambique, Tanzania and Zambia). The frontline Presidents told Lord Harlech that they will withhold support for Muzorewa until they are assured that the proposed reforms will be acceptable to the Patriotic Front. Chances of such acceptance are slim, since Guerrilla Leaders Robert Mugabe and Joshua Nkomo are totally opposed to any negotiated settlement with the bishop's regime.

Another condition for African support, Harlech informed Thatcher, was that Muzorewa must prove himself an independent black leader, not a mere puppet of the white establishment. His chances of doing so were drastically diminished by the June 26 raids on guerrilla bases near the Zambian capital of Lusaka, in which 20 people were killed by helicopter-borne Rhodesian commandos. Approved by Muzorewa, the raids have been widely interpreted by black African leaders as a sign that the bishop was tilting away from them and toward the white power bloc in southern Africa. Under the circumstances, there is a chance that the Organization of African Unity will vote against recognizing Muzorewa's regime at a heads-of-state summit next week.

State Department and CIA analysts in Washington say that it is premature to attempt a serious evaluation of Muzorewa's performance at this point; but they generally reject charges that the bishop is a prisoner of the white majority establishment. British officials are similarly cautious in appraising Muzorewa's programs. Whitehall analysts feel that he has grown in stature since becoming Prime Minister, but fear that he has been severely weakened by the recent parliamentary defections of Chikerema and his followers. Says a senior British official: "The situation in which Muzorewa finds himself would tax the ingenuity and toughness of a Kenyatta, and the bishop is not by any stretch of the imagination a Kenyatta. But stranger things have happened in the world of politics than Muzorewa discovering his manhood." qed

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