"Good Chemistry" All Around

MIDDLE EAST Strauss tries to get the autonomy talks into second gear.

"Their dialogue is going better than anyone expected." marveled President Carter's special Middle East envoy, Robert Strauss, last week. "It's a dramatic change in their relationship, and we hope to keep developing that good chemistry." Strauss was speaking of that odd couple of the Middle East, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, the mercurial visionary, and Israeli Premier Menachem Begin, the Talmudic legalist. Despite the glaringly obvious disparity in their temperaments, the awkward relationship between the two leaders that was so apparent at Camp David a year ago continues to grow into a sense of mutual respect and even affection.

Strauss called on both men last week to hear firsthand what had transpired at their eighth summit meeting in Haifa earlier this month--and perhaps to assess some troublesome new reports about Begin's health (see box). He also wanted to explore ways in which the talks on Palestinian autonomy could be propelled into "second gear" and West Bank and Gaza Strip residents could be coaxed into joining the negotiations over their political destiny. "We don't want this to end up as just an Egyptian-Israeli agreement." Strauss told TIME Correspondent William Drozdiak. :We are committed to a comprehensive peace; the issues are on the table and the dice are rolling."

Strauss first flew to Cairo for meetings with Prime Minister Moustafa Khalil, who heads Egypt's negotiating team, and then called on President Sadat at his hilltop retreat overlooking the Pyramids, on the outskirts of Cairo. Sadat seated Strauss at the evening session so that while he talked the Ambassador would have a compelling view of the Pyramids, illuminated by a bright harvest moon. Strauss later informed Carter: "Under those conditions, whatever Sadat had to sell, I would have bought."

The Egyptian President talked enthusiastically about his summit with Begin and urged Strauss "not to knock the Israelis over the head." Said Strauss later: "Sadat has gone from hope and optimism to absolute certainty about the inevitability of success in the peace process. He feels we have come so far down the road that there is no longer any worry of a breakdown." The U.S. Ambassador also came away convinced that Sadat has opted for a "narrow approach" to the peace process and has abandoned the broader strategy, favored by Washington, of trying to coax Jordan and the Palestinians to join the autonomy negotiations as soon as possible.

More than anything else, Sadat is anxious to carry out the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty without delay. This would enable him to retrieve the Sinai and its oil wells from the Israelis. He does not wish to get embroiled in any new controversies that might offer the Israelis a pretext to balk on the timetable, which now calls for the return of the areas containing the oil wells by next November. Explained an Egyptian member of the autonomy committee: "If we can establish the sense of permanence and stability we have today in the bilateral relations between Egypt and Israel, then we can do the same with autonomy."

For the time being, the U.S. is inclined to go along with the Egyptian-Israeli position that no outside participation is probable or perhaps even desirable for at least three months. During this period, negotiations on Palestinian autonomy will be conducted on a technical level. "We think we can make more progress now by putting together a dowry and hoping to find someone to marry the bride if the dowry gets rich enough."

But how much Jerusalem is prepared to contribute remains to be seen. In talks with Israeli officials, including Foreign Minister Moshe Dayan, Strauss reassured them that Carter is not going to "woo the Palestinians" into joining the talks over Jerusalem's objections. Nonetheless, after his 90-minute session with the Israeli Premier, Strauss--with Begin's blessing --sped off for a half-hour talk with Elias Freij, the mayor of Bethlehem. Freij, a moderate Palestinian, repeated his familiar argument that autonomy will lead nowhere. Said he: "The Palestinians cannot accept it because it will mean giving legal approval to Israel's occupation of the area."

West Bank moderates like Freij are more worried than ever by what they call Israel's "creeping annexation," most notably the establishment of new Jewish settlements in the area. The issue is a stormy one for Israelis as well, and a ministerial committee decision in August to beef up four existing settlements led to a bitter row last week between liberal Deputy Premier Yigael Yadin and Agriculture Minister Ariel Sharon, an ardent promoter of the settlements. At a Cabinet meeting, Yadin angrily charged that Sharon used the committee decision to build two entirely new settlements. "Sharon is misleading!" he shouted. "He lied to the Cabinet." Sharon's angry answer: "I am lying? Yadin is the one who misled thousands of people in this country." Then, turning to Yadin, he added: "I will strip you naked."

At that point, Begin wearily ordered a stenographer to delete the exchange of angry accusations from the record.

For all their public denunciations of autonomy, many Palestinians privately hope that Jordan's King Hussein and Palestine Liberation Organization Leader Yasser Arafat will agree to let West Bank and Gaza representatives take part in the talks. Indeed, there is speculation that Hussein and Arafat may already have reached some such agreement at the Conference of Nonaligned Countries in Havana. Observers point to a number of intriguing signs: 1) three pro-Jordanian West Bank moderates were suddenly called to Amman last week for talks with Hussein; 2) P.L.O. guerrillas in southern Lebanon have not launched any rocket attacks against Israeli targets for three weeks; and 3) Sadat's optimistic prediction that Jordan will join the peace process "within months." West Bankers suspect that Sadat is actually signaling Hussein that he had better enter the process soon if he wants to influence the outcome. Another factor in the changing mood is a growing awareness among Palestinians that an independent state consisting of the West Bank and Gaza is economically unrealistic. The only answer may be some kind of confederation with political links to Jordan and economic links to both Jordan and Israel, as well as a measure of independence.

Meanwhile, there were tantalizing hints that the Saudis were still very much involved behind the scenes in trying to influence the outcome of a Middle East settlement. TIME'S Cairo bureau chief Dean Brelis learned last week that Saudi Arabia, through a third party, recently deposited $500 million in a Denver bank. It was a sum that the Saudis had promised Sadat for the purchase of 50 F-5s and had withheld after Camp David. Although F-5s are no longer on Sadat's shopping list, the money is presumably there for him to buy the F-4 Phantoms he has decided on instead.

At the same time, however, high-level Western diplomats in the Middle East report that Crown Prince Fahd was "deeply dismayed" by the U.S. failure to respond to diplomatic overtures from the P.L.O. These diplomatic sources fear that the Saudis are seriously contemplating a cutback in oil production by 1 million bbl. a day in .early October, from current levels of 9.5 million bbl. a day. If that happens, the dice-rolling on the peace process could become very frantic indeed, and Strauss's optimism could freeze over with the first blasts of winter.

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