The Last Chance

ZIMBABWE RHODESIA

Posturing vs. reality

When they last sat down with British diplomats in Geneva three years ago, the archenemies in Zimbabwe Rhodesia's civil war could not even agree on an agenda. The talks broke off after three stormy weeks. Thus the British officials who had persuaded Prime Minister Bishop Abel Muzorewa and his guerrilla foes from the Patriotic Front to attend a "constitutional conference" in London last week were cheered when the two sides agreed on an outline for the discussions. It had been adopted, an erudite Foreign Office spokesman gleefully announced, nemine contradicente (Latin for without any objection), on only the second day. The unexpectedly swift approval of the agenda suggested that both sides were determined to reach agreement on a new constitution for the breakaway colony that could serve as a basis for a cease-fire and internationally recognized elections. As a senior adviser to Joshua Nkomo, the Patriotic Front co-leader, put it, "We are here for a settlement and we are taking it seriously. Posturing is one thing; reality is another."

The reality is that the talks may be the last chance to achieve a peaceful solution to the war. After seven years of bloody fighting and more than 18,000 deaths, neither side has gained a decisive edge. Salisbury's 12,000-man army and air force, backed by 40,000 reservists, have killed thousands of guerrillas in attacks on base camps in Mozambique and Zambia, but without crippling the Patriotic Front; Nkomo and his partner Robert Mugabe now have an estimated 12,000 fighters operating inside Zimbabwe Rhodesia, almost double the number of a year ago. Tiring of the stalemate, the guerrillas' backers in the "frontline states" (Tanzania, Zambia, Angola, Mozambique and Botswana) have prodded Nkomo and Mugabe to be more flexible. Simultaneously British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher has been pressuring Muzorewa to accept amendments to the Zimbabwe Rhodesia constitution that would remove some of the privileges accorded the country's 230,000 whites (in a population of 7.2 million) in exchange for a lifting of the 13-year-old economic sanctions.

Still there was plenty of posturing over the conference's central issue: the nature and extent of guarantees to be offered to the country's whites, who are fleeing at the rate of 1,000 a month. The Patriotic Front put forth a proposed constitution that would not reserve any seats for whites in the 100-member Parliament (they now control 28). Britain's Foreign Secretary Lord Carrington, presented an alternative that would guarantee the whites one-third membership in a toothless Senate and an unspecified number of seats in the lower house--but not enough to block legislation or constitutional amendments. Displeased by both plans, Muzorewa threatened to walk out. But sources in his delegation said that the bishop's tantrum was no more than a threat aimed at holding together his divided delegation.

Another key goal of the conference is finding a formula for the installation of a peace-keeping force, probably supplied by Commonwealth nations, to supervise a truce until new elections can be held. If that compromise cannot be achieved, neither side has any alternative but to keep fighting it out on the battlefield, where no one has any hope of a victory.

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