Give and Take

Toward a new constitution

"I hope it may be our privilege before I too long to welcome an independent Zimbabwe to this assembly as a full member of the United Nations." That sentiment, expressed by British Foreign Secretary Lord Carrington at the U.N. General Assembly last week, reflected the optimism emanating from the third round of London talks on the future of Zimbabwe Rhodesia. The reason: a dramatic exchange of major concessions seemed to have brought a new Zimbabwe constitution almost within reach.

First, Patriotic Front Leaders Robert Mugabe and Joshua Nkomo surprised the conference by agreeing to give the tiny Rhodesian white minority (3% of the population) an outsize 20% of the seats in a future parliament. The move clearly ran against their longstanding contention that such a guarantee would be inherently "racist." Their grudging acceptance of it now brought them into line with the Salisbury delegation of Prime Minister Abel Muzorewa, which had adopted the 20% formula a week earlier. Then, with equally surprising magnanimity, the bishop's multiracial coalition government reversed an earlier stand and announced its acceptance of internationally supervised elections. At week's end only a few outstanding questions remained before agreement could be reached on all the provisions of a future constitution.

"All the sides are behaving as if there were no insurmountable problems," a senior adviser to Muzorewa said in amazement at the pervasive mood of sweet reason. Even the militant Mugabe confessed that he was "cautiously optimistic" about the possibility of a settlement and graciously took Muzorewa off his personal list of "war criminals." His conciliatory tone was shared by fellow Guerrilla Leader Nkomo, who told TIME'S William McWhirter, "I would like everybody to be given a chance to contribute to a rea-soned-out solution of the problem. It is not the conference that has changed things. It's the circumstances that have changed."

Among these changed circumstances behind the Patriotic Front's dramatic shift has been the pressure exerted by the so-called front-line states (Tanzania, Botswana, Angola, Mozambique, Zambia), on which the guerrillas depend for most of their support. Faced with serious economic difficulties at home, the front-line leaders have been anxious for an end to the long and costly war and have not been shy about arm twisting. Warned Tanzanian President Julius Nyerere in London's New Statesman: "If any wing of the Patriotic Front should develop doubts or hesitations about fighting such an open election, [I would] disown them and expect the rest of Africa to do the same." In much the same way, the Salisbury delegation has been under pressure from Salisbury's own patrons in South Africa, who have been actively pushing them toward compromise.

The negotiators' optimism was tempered with caution, however; beyond the constitutional settlement lie the far more volatile questions of organizing a transitional government and policing the elections. On these rocks the conference might well founder, for the views of the two delegations are directly opposed. Salisbury now seems willing to accept the general outlines of a Whitehall plan calling for 1) a British "resident commissioner" to wield effective provisional power and supervise the elections and 2) a Commonwealth peace-keeping force to police the cease-fire that would confine both government and guerrilla forces to their barracks or jungle bases. But the Patriotic Front insists on its own direct role, both political and military, in any transitional government and in the policing of the elections. In Nkomo's words, the front must have a hand on "the real institutions of power": the army, police and civil service. Such conditions appear totally unacceptable to Salisbury.

Thus the overall success of the conference will depend on the willingness of both groups to agree to even more fundamental concessions than they have made so far. Peace could hardly come too soon in the seven-year civil war: at week's end Rhodesian army troops stormed across the border and inflicted heavy casualties on guerrilla bases in Mozambique in retaliation for the killing of two members of the Salisbury Parliament.

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