Kennedy's Lead Is Shrinking

A TIME poll shows Carter is within ten points of his rival

As long as Senator Edward M. Kennedy was not a candidate for the presidential nomination, he held a 2-to-1 lead over Jimmy Carter in most public opinion surveys. But now, just as he has officially declared his candidacy, his lead has been reduced to only ten percentage points, 49% to 39%. This sharp change is partly a rallying of Southern support behind Carter, partly a growing belief that Kennedy is "too liberal." Kennedy nonetheless remains the strongest Democratic candidate against all Republicans. Matched against Ronald Reagan, the Republican leader by far, Kennedy wins easily. These are among the findings of a survey of 1,027 voters conducted for TIME by the research firm of Yankelovich, Skelly & White Inc. The interviews were held Oct. 23 to 25.

In addition to Carter's marked recovery against Kennedy, the poll shows that the President has also strengthened his position against his possible Republican opponents. In August, Carter trailed Reagan by four percentage points. But in the latest survey, he has regained the lead, 45% to 41%. Similarly, Carter has widened his lead over John Connally from four points in the late summer to 13 points now. Kennedy's advantage over these Republicans is, however, much wider.

Approval of Carter's handling of the nation's affairs has not increased. In fact, confidence in his economic, energy and foreign policies is dismally low (none has a favorable rating higher than 17%).

What has worked in Carter's favor is the trust that voters still have in Carter as a person. His rating in this area is scarcely impressive --voters were evenly divided among those who trust him and those who have doubts--but more voters express doubts about Ted Kennedy than express full trust in him (51% to 45%).

Some people close to Carter seem to be damaging him. The poll shows a highly unfavorable opinion of Hamilton Jordan, with 66% viewing him negatively. In addition. 56% of those surveyed say they are bothered by allegations of illegal drug use among the White House staff. Surprisingly, the President's mother, Lillian Carter, is viewed unfavorably by 55%. But Rosalynn, who some aides in the White House have suggested is taking too prominent a role in the campaign, is quite popular. Among those surveyed, 62% have a favorable impression of her while only 38% say they do not like her.

Kennedy's lead over Carter is based on the public's perception of his leadership ability. The Yankelovich organization asked voters whether the top candidates "would be very strong Presidents" or "not strong Presidents." The net difference between those measures provides a "leadership scale," which Kennedy dominates with a rating of +42 (56% say he would be a strong President and 14% say he would not). Carter, on the other hand, rates --31 on the scale, the lowest of any candidate in the field. Other figures were:

Reagan +14, Connally +5, Baker + 2, Bush -18, Brown -23.

The level of confidence in Kennedy's ability to handle economic, energy and foreign affairs is nearly three times higher than Carter's abysmally low ratings. Yet only slightly more than a third of the voters express much confidence in Kennedy in these areas, suggesting a widespread skepticism about any President's ability to manage the nation well.

Compared directly with Carter, Kennedy is rated a better speaker, more knowledgeable about how to get things done, more experienced, more dynamic, more attractive looking, a better campaigner with a better staff. He is not only credited with having a better personality but also, despite the continuing echoes of Chappaquiddick, with being better "in times of crisis." He is, however, rated less trustworthy, less honest and forthright, less morally upright, and not as good a family man as Carter.

When asked specifically about Chappaquiddick, 76% say, as did 79% in a TIME poll a year ago, that "it is time to forget Chappaquiddick and judge Kennedy by what he has done since then." Similarly, 63% say that the accident should not be an issue in the campaign. Nonetheless, 44% say that they are still bothered by Kennedy's part in the incident. Among independents and Democrats who prefer Carter to Kennedy, that figure is higher (55%), suggesting that Chappaquiddick is costing Kennedy support.

The challenge to an incumbent President has not hurt Kennedy's image as a loyal party man; 85% classify him as such. He carries a reputation as an outstanding member of the U.S. Senate. But the feeling that his views are too liberal has begun to grow. A year ago, only 38% said he was too liberal, but that number has now jumped to 46%.

Other aspects of Kennedy's life do not, at the moment, seem to affect his political standing. Less than a quarter of those surveyed say they are bothered by the fact that the Senator and his wife Joan are living apart. Nor is Joan Kennedy herself any great political liability, since 52% view her favorably and 48% unfavorably. A sizable majority (61%) say, however, that they would worry a lot about the possibility of assassination if Kennedy becomes the next President.

Jerry Brown's political stock continues to drop toward the point where he may no longer be a viable candidate. Paired against Carter for the Democratic nomination, the California Governor loses badly, 63% to 24%, much worse than his 47%-to-31% standing in August. Only 34% say he would be acceptable as the next President; 46% find him unacceptable.

On the Republican side, Ronald Reagan continues to hold a comfortable lead among Republicans and independents as their choice for the presidential nomination. Over the past seven months, during which Reagan has not seriously campaigned, his standing has actually improved. In April, 28% favored him; now 33% say he is their first choice.

Although Gerald Ford has declared that he will not be a candidate, he retired from the field with the support of 27% of Republicans and independents.

John Connally and Howard Baker placed in a tie for third, with 11%. When Ford voters are transferred to the remaining candidates according to their second choice for the nomination, Reagan's lead increases impressively.

With Ford out, Reagan wins 42%, while Connally and Baker get 17% and 16% respectively. George Bush remains a distant fourth with only 6%.

Connally's vigorous and expensive campaigning has so far brought no improvement in his standings. Nearly as many people find him unacceptable as President as find him acceptable (40% to 42%). Behind that resistance lie continued doubts about his probity; 42% say they "just don't trust him." Connally has attempted to make his negative image into a positive asset by appearing tough enough and clever enough to run the country effectively. Yet 62% say they perceive him as a "wheeler-dealer," and that contributes heavily to his overall unacceptability. Worse for Connally, his indictment and subsequent acquittal in the milk fund bribery case bother 51% of those asked; 42% say the milk fund case should be an issue in the campaign, compared with the 30% who think Chappaquiddick should be an issue.

The background of this election remains one of pessimism and economic worry. Sixty-nine percent say they feel the country is in "deep and serious trouble."

Only 26% feel certain that the election results next year will cause a major improvement in economic conditions.

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