An End to Isolationism

As Saddam Hussein consolidates his power

His nation sits upon a "lake of oil," boasted Saddam Hussein al Takriti last week--referring to Iraq's estimated proven reserves of more than 32 billion bbl. Largely because of that petrol power, Iraq is emerging as a political force in the Middle East after years of xenophobic isolationism. The country's increasing importance was underscored by a visit to Baghdad last month by Jordan's King Hussein for discussions on a comprehensive Middle East peace settlement. Other recent callers have included French Premier Raymond Barre, British Foreign Secretary Lord Carrington and his West German counterpart, Hans-Dietrich Genscher. Their visits are solid evidence of the growing Western interest in Iraq and of Baghdad's desire to open new economic and diplomatic relations with the West. They also suggest that Saddam Hussein, 42, who replaced ailing Ahmed Hassan al Bakr, 65, as President last July, is determined to forge a more active, and possibly less radical, foreign policy for his country. TIME Correspondent Bruce van Voorst reports from Baghdad:

Winter is descending on the Iraqi capital, or so they claim in the coffeehouses on Saadun Street, even though the afternoon temperature hovers above 90DEG. After comments on the weather, conversations with leather-faced Iraqi peasants, sipping lemon tea or sweet Turkish coffee, or with natty young chain-smoking bureaucrats from nearby ministries turn these days to politics. That means the ascendancy of Saddam Hussein, who has moved decisively to strengthen his grip on the country.

Saddam Hussein's consolidation of power has included the arrest last July of 67 Cabinet members, politicians and government employees in an alleged conspiracy against the new regime; 21 officials, including a Deputy Prime Minister, were executed for treason, but the rationale for the purge remains a mystery. The government branded the plot a Communist attempt to oust Saddam Hussein and unofficially suggested that Syria was behind the machinations. Most Western observers believe it was engineered by the new President simply to eliminate critics of his authoritarian rule.

Saddam Hussein has frenetically tried to build up his personal image in the wake of the purge. His public activities are front-page news in the government-controlled press. His photographs are everywhere. This extravagant cult of personality seems designed to broaden the political base of the new President, particularly among bureaucrats made nervous by the "conspiracy." The President took steps to placate potential opposition within the government. He ordered large salary increases for bureaucrats, police forces and the army and announced plans for often postponed elections to a general assembly. If the carrot fails, Saddam Hussein certainly has the stick. Iraq remains a tough, unrelenting police state. Telephones are tapped, and there is a widespread system of.informants as well as thousands of political prisoners.

Saddam Hussein faces potential opposition from two of Iraq's dissident populations: the Kurds in the north, who share with their ethnic cousins in Iran a yearning for autonomy, and Shi'ite Muslims in the south, whose political consciousness has been further raised by the Ayatullah Khomeini's revolution. Shortly after the July executions, he announced that 1,000 Kurdish tribesmen would be allowed to return to Kurdistan from exile in the south. On a visit to the predominantly Kurdish city of Sulaimaniya, he reiterated his support for an autonomous area where the Kurds will have their own legislative council. On a visit to the Shi'ite areas of the south, he distributed hundreds of free television sets but bluntly warned that he would not tolerate collusion by the Shi'ites with the Iranian government.

Aided by oil revenues that are expected to hit $20 billion this year, the Iraqi government has decreed free medical services and free education and launched an impressive campaign to stamp out illiteracy, with fines and jail terms for those between 15 and 45 who refuse to learn to read and write. There are also notable failures. Agricultural production has lagged, despite huge irrigation and land-reclamation projects. Housewives frequently do without such basic foods as potatoes, onions or eggs. Baghdad is afflicted by urban sprawl, air pollution and strained water and electrical facilities.

Thanks to its oil, Iraq has become an attractive commercial market; 66 nations competed for space at last month's Baghdad international fair, which in the past normally brought only about two dozen exhibitors. Diplomatically, too, the government is trying to change its former image as a radical regime. At last spring's Baghdad conference of Arab states, Saddam Hussein signed a communique that tacitly accepted United Nations Security Council Resolution 242 as a basis for solving the Palestinian question. Iraq's action, say Middle East experts, was an intriguing modification of its traditionally strong anti-Israel position as a leader of the so-called Arab rejectionist front.

Iraq's biggest problem is the threat that the Islamic revolution in Iran might spread to the Shi'ites who make up the bulk of the labor force in Iraqi oilfields. Last week Baghdad withdrew from a 1975 peace agreement with Iran that had ended three years of border hostilities, presumably because Iraq now believes the power relationship between the two countries has been reversed. The implication of the move is that Saddam Hussein, despite his problems, is feeling very confident these days.

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