Scrambling an Already Wild Race

Anderson does well, but the week's real winner may be Ford

First it was Iowa, then New Hampshire, and last week it was Massachusetts that managed to scramble the 1980 presidential race. Every one of the early heats seems to produce its surprises, thrusting up a new star and creating new possibilities. That emphatically was the case in last week's voting, which shaded or changed the fortunes of the whole cast of characters from Jimmy Carter to Ronald Reagan, produced headlines for G.O.P. Congressman John Anderson, hitherto only a beguiling also-ran, and most important, pushed Gerald Ford to the edge of joining the race.

For a moment, the essence of the rapidly shifting race was caught in a quiet office in the U.S. Senate where a casualty of the Massachusetts vote was talking about why he had just dropped out of the Republican race. Senator Howard Baker wondered aloud about the volatility of the electorate in this political season, and then shrugged. Said he: "I haven't the foggiest idea of how this election will finally end."

Nor, it would seem, does anyone else. Given the right combination of events and a little bit of luck, any number of pairings is still conceivable. To be sure, President Carter remained the heavy betting choice among the Democrats, but in Massachusetts Ted Kennedy defeated him by 65% to 29%--a wider margin than the Senator had expected in his native state. That victory was dimmed by his 3-to-l loss to Carter in neighboring Vermont in a "beauty contest" primary that left the actual selection of delegates to party caucuses. Nonetheless, Kennedy's sagging candidacy was buoyed in another way when the President unexpectedly handed him a powerful campaign issue: the Administration's abysmal handling of the U.N. resolution on Israel.

For all the encouragement that Massachusetts gave Kennedy, the state may have changed the Republican race far more dramatically. On the surface, Reagan had good reason to be satisfied by the tally, finishing a respectable third in a state that was alien territory. He thanked the voters for giving him and Wife Nancy what he called a splendid present for their 28th wedding anniversary, which fell on the day that voters cast their ballots. On Saturday, Reagan got an even more glittering prize when he soundly defeated Connally in the South Carolina primary. With most of the ballots counted, Reagan was winning nearly 55% of the votes, vs. roughly 30% for Connally and some 15% for George Bush.

Still, Massachusetts set in motion a series of events that could ultimately cost Reagan the nomination. The man who started things was Anderson, 58, the liberal, ten-term Congressman from Illinois, who startled even himself by finishing with 123,076 votes (31%), as against 124,226 (31.3%) for Bush, a Massachusetts native despite his current Texas address. At the same time, Anderson scored another "win" in Vermont: he took 30% of the vote there, to Reagan's 31% and 23% for Bush. Much of Anderson's surprising strength came from independent voters, bearing out what he has been arguing all along: that a deeply conservative Republican like Reagan cannot attract enough independent voters to win the November election. Ironically, the moderate Baker had also insisted that he could attract the necessary coalition of voters to win. But his quiet style lit no fires, and when he finished a distant fourth in Massachusetts, with only 5% of the tally, he decided to pack it in. Said he: "It's not in the cards."

The inability of any of the Republicans to seize a commanding lead quickened the interest of former President Ford, who narrowly defeated Reagan for the nomination in 1976. Ford is expected to announce soon whether he will run and turn the G.O.P. race into even more of a free-for-all. Said he of his chances: "At this stage, the odds are very tough. But I believe with the right kind of campaign I could be nominated."

Actually, Ford has been on the verge of diving in for weeks, but he wanted to be wooed. Last week a prominent group of the ex-President's friends, headed by former Secretary of the Air Force Thomas C. Reed, announced formation of a national Draft Ford Committee and urged Americans to write the former Chief Executive to show "there is broad support for a Ford presidency." If such backing materialized, Ford admitted, "I'd have a hard time saying no." He believes that his moderate views make him, and not Reagan, "the most electable Republican," and he reasons that the sad state of the economy gives him what could prove a decisive edge over Carter.

Last week Ford was getting some solid signs of support. Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger met with Ford in Palm Springs and said he would endorse his candidacy. New York State Republican Party Chairman Bernard Kilbourn urged Ford to run. Stuart Spencer, a key Ford strategist during the 1976 race, began putting together a campaign staff. Ford met with Ohio Governor James Rhodes, among others, to discuss politics. He even conferred with John Sears, the man Reagan fired as his campaign manager on the day the Californian won big in New Hampshire. Neither man would say whether or not Sears had been asked to join a Ford campaign, although the former President did acknowledge that Sears would "be a great asset." Said Sears: "I believe Ford could be nominated. I don't think the timing is too late."

Possibly not. But Ford has already missed the filing deadlines for 22 primaries that will name 939 of the 1,994 delegates who will convene in Detroit next July. Winning in the primaries, admits G.O.P. Chairman Bill Brock, would be "an awesome task" for Ford. Still, he could get a substantial boost from Baker, whose name remains on the ballot in several primaries that Ford would not be able to contest. Baker thus could end up serving as a surrogate for Ford. Indeed, that is precisely what will happen in the March 25 Connecticut balloting. In the key state of Illinois, where 92 delegates to the convention will be chosen on March 18, at least two-thirds of Baker's slate will stand in for the former President.

Even so, some of Ford's closest advisers doubt that he can win via the primaries at this late date. House Minority Leader John Rhodes fears that his old friend would only fracture the party by campaigning. Melvin Laird, former Defense Secretary and longtime Ford confidant, also believes that Ford should not plunge into the remaining primaries but gamble instead that neither Reagan nor anyone else will win on the first ballot. Says Laird: "I think his best chance, the way I add it up right now, is that the convention has to turn to him."

A fascinating scenario could unfold, however, if the convention deadlocked and failed to select either Ford or Reagan. In that case, the search would be on for a compromise candidate. One possible choice: Baker, the man whose withdrawal is bound to have an important effect on whether or not Ford decides to run.

While Ford dallied over his decision, his problem was being made more difficult by the hour as Reagan rushed ahead with his Southern offensive. After South Carolina, Reagan expects to do well in this week's Southern primaries--Alabama, Florida and Georgia--as well as in Texas (May 3) and Mississippi (June 3).

John Connally, meanwhile, seemed to be running out of steam. And cash. He had pinned a great deal--perhaps too much--on the outcome in South Carolina, frankly admitting that his national campaign depended on his winning there or finishing a close second. Said Connally: "This is the only place we've really worked." To support his cause, Connally enlisted two of the state's most popular and powerful politicians: former Governor James Edwards and Republican Senator Strom Thurmond. In particular, Thurmond was campaigning for Connally as though his own career were at stake. With the Texan at his side, Thurmond was at a Du Pont plant gate in Camden at 7:30 one morning last week, buttonholing arriving workers, draping an arm around each and whispering confidingly, "He's a mighty good man. Speak a good word for him."

Anderson, who had made such a splash in Massachusetts, was not even on the ballot in South Carolina. A noted civil rights advocate in the House, Anderson is much too liberal for the South. Instead, he is looking forward to the primary in home state Illinois. The Republican Party there is a good deal more conservative than he is, but Democrats can vote Republican in the primary, and Anderson will continue his efforts to lure both crossovers and independents. In Illinois, Anderson will be using the same approach that was so successful in Massachusetts. In his victory speech in Boston, he quoted Ralph Waldo Emerson to explain his political appeal: "Nothing astonishes men so much as common sense and plain dealing." Added Anderson: "We tried first and foremost to make this a campaign of ideas."

If Anderson outrages conservative Republicans--he supports SALT II and the Panama Canal treaties, for instance--his liberal views and his refreshing candor have attracted thousands of student volunteers and his campaign is fast becoming the most fashionable since the Clean for Gene McCarthy crusade of 1968.

Though Anderson was still behind Reagan and Bush, there were signs last week that he was beginning to attract some attention in Illinois. The flow of money was quickening, students were volunteering, and over the weekend he won endorsements not only from the proDemocratic Chicago Sun-Times but also from the moderate Republican Chicago Tribune.

As for Bush, he remained a serious contender by winning in Massachusetts, however narrowly. But he clearly failed to regain the momentum--the "Big Mo," as he likes to call it--that he won in the Iowa caucuses, then lost in New Hampshire. In the Bay State, he had a good organization, campaigned extensively, enjoyed the endorsement of such prominent Republicans as Henry Cabot Lodge and Elliot Richardson, and still was able to win by less than 1%.

In the wake of his disappointing showings in Massachusetts and Vermont, Bush tried to put the best face on the situation by declaring that he was delighted to have Anderson to his left and Reagan to his right. That, he said, "was exactly where the American people are and that's why I'm going to get the nomination." But Anderson's showing clearly rattled Bush, and at one point he complained: "John Anderson is not a national candidate. He's an anomaly."

Bush is bitter about Anderson, and angry at the prospect that Ford will enter the race, because his whole strategy is to turn the Republican contest into a two-man duel between himself and Reagan. In that event, he reasons, other Republican leaders would rally to him because of their doubts that Reagan could win the election.

On the Democratic side, some Kennedy supporters saw hope that luck might be turning their way. Unanticipated events, like the seizure of the hostages in Iran and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, have helped Carter rally support. In turn, the Administration's disastrous bobbling of the anti-Israel resolution in the U.N. suddenly gave Kennedy a comparable opportunity. He immediately moved to capitalize on the issue in New York State, where Jews are expected to cast up to 16% of the vote in the important March 25 primary. Calling the episode a "major foreign policy gaffe" and the vote "inappropriate, unwise and unjustified," Kennedy met in Manhattan with a group of Jewish leaders who were furious over the initial U.S. vote supporting the resolution. As a prominent activist bluntly put it: "We're looking for someone to love." Said Rabbi Alexander Schindler, who endorsed Kennedy months ago: "There is a sense of betrayal which is going to manifest itself in support for Ted Kennedy."

Given the gaffe at the U.N., the flow of bad economic news and the uncertainty about Carter's effectiveness, the President obviously does not have an unbreakable grasp on the nomination. But then, with the race in its early stages, neither does anyone else in either party. As of this week, there are still 41 primaries and caucuses to go. The summer conventions are a long, long way off.

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